Oracle’s 30% Spike: Cloud Megadeals, AI Capacity, and a $455B Backlog — Does the Outlook Justify the Rerating?
Oracle rocketed after earnings despite a headline EPS and revenue miss, as investors focused on an extraordinary multiyear demand picture tied to artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure. Remaining performance obligations surged to $455 billion, management mapped a path from roughly $10 billion of OCI revenue in FY2025 to $18 billion in FY2026 and as high as $144 billion by FY2030, and capex is set to climb about 65% to approximately $35 billion this year to build capacity. The core debate now is whether backlog quality, conversion tempo, and execution against aggressive capacity plans can sustain the stock’s rerating in the face of power, supply, and competitive constraints.
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