FOMC Minutes: Fed Split on Rate Hikes vs Cuts
Updated May 9: The internal disagreement the March minutes hinted at has now broken into the open. On April 29, the FOMC voted 8-4 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% — the most divided Fed decision since October 1992. Stephen Miran dissented for a 25-basis-point cut. Three regional bank presidents — Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan — dissented in the opposite direction, opposing the easing-bias language Powell let stand in the post-meeting statement. Four dissents. Two directions. One central bank that no longer agrees on what restrictive policy looks like. This is the structural shift the March minutes flagged in code, now visible in the public vote tally. The 10-year Treasury closed May 7 at 4.41%, with the 2-year at 3.92% and the 30-year at 4.97% — a curve that now prices a Fed expected to do nothing for longer than the dot plot suggests. CPI sat at 330.293 in March, up from 326.031 in December. Unemployment held at 4.3% in April. The April jobs report beat expectations for the second consecutive month. The hawk faction has the data on its side, and on May 15 Powell hands the chair to Kevin Warsh — a hawk by historical record. Position the dissent map, not the dot plot.