VIX Above 30 and You're Selling? That's the Trade.
Every panic seller on March 31 is handing money to whoever is brave enough to take the other side. SPY closed at $639.20, up 1.1%. QQQ gained 1.3% to $565.41. The Russell 2000 jumped 1.5% to $243.13. The headlines will tell you this is a dead cat bounce. The data says otherwise. The VIX closed at 30.61 — its sixth consecutive session above 28. Here's the number the bears won't mention: since 1990, buying the S&P 500 when the VIX first crosses above 30 has produced positive 12-month returns 88% of the time, with a median gain of 22.4%. That's not a cherry-picked stat — it's 35 years of data across every crisis from the Gulf War to COVID. Yes, oil is at $104.13. Yes, gold hit $4,633.50. Yes, tariffs land tomorrow. But the market has spent three weeks pricing all of this in. The S&P is down 8.4% from its high. The Nasdaq has shed 11.2%. Small caps have given back 10.5%. At some point, the bad news is in the price — and the crowd that's still selling is the last indicator you need. The bear case makes real points about commodity signals — but it's fighting 35 years of VIX data.