Rising Yields Aren't a Warning — They're a Signal
Everyone's panicking. Yields are surging, the bond market is selling off, and the financial press is spinning doomsday narratives about inflation spirals and rate hike cycles. The 10-year Treasury hit 4.39%. Chaos, apparently. Here's the thing: this is completely normal. Not "normal for a distressed market" or "normal given the circumstances" — just normal. A 4.39% 10-year yield when the Fed funds rate sits at 3.64% is what textbooks call a functioning yield curve. What we're watching isn't a warning signal. It's the bond market finally waking up from a decade-long fever dream of artificially suppressed rates. The real question isn't why yields are rising. It's why anyone thought 3% 10-year yields were sustainable in a $31.44 trillion economy with 4.4% unemployment. The panic tells you more about recency bias than it does about the economy.