Gold Q2 Outlook: Three Catalysts After the Pullback
Gold futures closed near $4,570 on March 28, down 18% from their all-time high of $5,589 set earlier in Q1. The correction wiped out roughly $1,000 per ounce in eight weeks — and it happened despite the Fed holding rates at 3.64%, the trade-weighted dollar sitting at 120, and central banks still accumulating reserves. That disconnect is the story heading into Q2. The easy money from the 2025 rate-cutting cycle is priced in. The geopolitical risk premium that pushed gold past $5,000 has partially unwound. What remains is a structural bid from sovereign buyers, a yield curve that just re-steepened to 56 basis points, and an inflation rate running at 2.7% annualised — still above the Fed's target. The question is whether these three forces are enough to put a floor under gold or whether the metal still has further to fall.