Existing Home Sales: Why the Spring Thaw May Disappoint
January existing home sales cratered to a 3.91 million seasonally adjusted annual rate — the weakest start to a year since the pandemic lockdowns of 2020. That 8.4% month-over-month plunge from December's 4.27 million pace wasn't just seasonal noise. It was the housing market screaming that [6% mortgage rates](/posts/2026-03-08/mortgage-rate-outlook-what-drives-rates-lower) still aren't low enough to break the lock-in effect. The bulls have been telling us for months that pent-up demand would unleash a spring buying season. Rates have indeed ticked lower — the 30-year fixed hit 5.98% in late February, finally cracking below 6% — but transaction volume keeps disappointing. With February's Existing Home Sales report due around March 20, expectations are building for a rebound. I wouldn't bet on it.