Developing: U.S. and Iran Open Critical Third Round of Nuclear Talks in Geneva as Military Buildup Reaches Historic Levels

The U.S. delegation is led by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, while Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi heads Tehran's team. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi, mediating the discussions, struck an optimistic tone, saying the two sides had "demonstrated unprecedented openness to new and creative ideas and solutions."

But underneath the diplomatic language, deep fissures remain. Washington's core demand is that Iran permanently halt all domestic uranium enrichment — a condition Tehran has consistently rejected. "Enrichment is our right," Araghchi reiterated on CBS' Face the Nation, citing Iran's membership in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Iran's foreign ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, told state television that "Iran has entered the negotiations with full preparedness and seriousness" and had come "with a very reasonable amount of flexibility."

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio added another layer of complexity on Wednesday, warning that Iran's refusal to even discuss its ballistic missile program was a "big, big problem." Rubio said Iran's conventional weapons were "solely designed to attack America and attack Americans, if they so choose to do so. These things have to be addressed." Tehran has insisted that missiles are "non-negotiable" and that the talks must remain focused strictly on nuclear issues. Vice President J.D. Vance reinforced the U.S. position Wednesday, saying Washington had "seen evidence" that Iran was trying to rebuild a nuclear weapon.

One of the most contested claims from Trump's State of the Union was his assertion that Iran is building missiles that will "soon" be able to reach the United States. This marked the first time any U.S. president or official has publicly characterized Iran as being on the verge of developing an intercontinental ballistic missile.

The claim has drawn sharp scrutiny. A Defense Intelligence Agency report released in 2025 assessed that Iran could develop a "militarily-viable ICBM by 2035" if it chose to pursue that capability — a timeline roughly a decade out. A U.S. official told NBC News that while Iran has been making advances in missile technology, "there was no indication of dramatic new progress." Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, called Trump's comments "an exaggeration," noting that "even if they did" develop an ICBM, "they don't have a nuclear weapon to put on top of that system."

However, other analysts see cause for concern. Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, pointed to Iran's testing of at least two space launch vehicles after its air war with Israel last June as evidence that "the regime's intentions" should "ring the alarm bell." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has separately warned that Iran is developing missiles with an 8,000-kilometer range that could eventually threaten the U.S. East Coast. The technical overlap between satellite launch vehicles and ballistic missile systems makes Iran's space program a persistent source of ambiguity — and anxiety — for Western intelligence agencies.

The talks unfold against the backdrop of extraordinary internal turmoil in Iran. Anti-government protests that erupted in January have been met with a devastating crackdown that has killed thousands. The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) has documented more than 7,000 deaths, with nearly 12,000 additional cases "under review." Trump claimed during his State of the Union that 32,000 protesters had been killed — a figure significantly higher than what rights groups have been able to verify.

More than 53,000 people have been arrested since the protests began, according to HRANA. The Iranian judiciary's head, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejehi, labeled protesters "terrorists" and called for fast-tracked punishments. Beyond rank-and-file demonstrators, authorities have targeted reformist politicians, doctors, lawyers, and journalists. Among those swept up were Azar Mansouri, head of the Reformist Front coalition, and Ebrahim Asgharzadeh, a former U.S. Embassy hostage-taker turned regime critic.

Human Rights Watch has documented "severe beatings with batons, sexual and gender-based violence, food deprivation, and psychological torture, such as threats of execution." Thousands of detainees have been held at off-the-grid "black box detention sites" — warehouses, truck containers, and storage facilities — where they are not logged in official records. Yet the protests have not been fully extinguished: university campus demonstrations continued this week even as the Geneva talks opened. "The regime is wielding fear as its principal instrument," said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group, "but fear is a blunt tool against a people who have exhausted their patience."

The scale of the U.S. military deployment in the region provides a window into what planners may be contemplating. The USS Gerald R. Ford — the world's largest aircraft carrier — departed Crete on Thursday to join the USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been conducting round-the-clock flight operations in the Arabian Sea since late January. Together, the two strike groups command at least 14 major warships, including nine Arleigh Burke-class destroyers capable of launching Tomahawk cruise missiles.

The deployment of 12 F-22 Raptor stealth fighters to Ovda Airbase in southern Israel is particularly significant. As national security analyst Joe Funderburke noted in the Small Wars Journal, the F-22 "is not a simple show-of-force aircraft. It is designed to suppress enemy air defenses and protect penetrating strike platforms like the B-2 Spirit bomber" — the same aircraft used in last June's Operation Midnight Hammer, which struck three Iranian nuclear facilities using 30,000-pound bunker-buster munitions.

Yet the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has reportedly warned that strikes against Iran could be risky, potentially drawing the U.S. into a prolonged conflict. Iran has threatened to respond to any attack by targeting American military assets across the Middle East and striking Israel. U.S.-allied countries in the region have echoed these concerns, warning that air power alone cannot change Iran's leadership. "If the U.S. attacks us, that's an act of aggression," Araghchi said before the talks. "What we do in response is the act of self-defense. Our missiles cannot hit the American soil, so obviously we have to hit the Americans' bases in this region." Oil markets have already priced in substantial risk, with Brent crude trading near seven-month highs above $71 per barrel.

Despite the rhetoric, the contours of a potential compromise have begun to emerge. Iran's nuclear enrichment effectively stopped after last June's U.S. strikes on its facilities, a reality that Sanam Vakil of Chatham House describes as already "de facto happening." Iran could formalize that freeze — committing not to enrich uranium above a certain grade for a set number of years — as its key concession. In return, Tehran expects the lifting of crippling economic sanctions that have deepened a crisis already fueling street protests.

The presence of the International Atomic Energy Agency's director at the Geneva talks suggests nuclear verification and monitoring mechanisms are also on the table. Previous negotiations have floated the idea of a regional consortium for uranium enrichment, as well as plans to address Iran's roughly 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium stockpile. Ali Shamkhani, a senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, said Thursday that a "quick agreement is within reach" and that Tehran's "commitment not to build nuclear weapons" was "consistent with the Leader's fatwa and Iran's defense doctrine."

But multiple analysts doubt this will be enough for the Trump administration. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has lobbied hard for any deal to include Iran's ballistic missiles and its network of regional proxies — Hamas, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and the Houthis. As Iranian-American journalist Masih Alinejad told CBS News, given Trump's harsh criticism of the Obama-era nuclear deal, he now "needs a much better deal." Alinejad argued that "a deal that leaves Islamic Republic's nuclear enrichment facilities intact and allows them to keep their missiles would be viewed as a total failure." Georgetown University's Paul Musgrave told CNBC that while no military strike appeared imminent Thursday, the two sides' core demands may simply be incompatible: "If you're the Iranian government, you're probably looking at this and trying to think exactly what do the Americans want out of this?"