News: US-Iran Nuclear Crisis Escalates as Trump Considers Military Strikes and Tehran Prepares Counterproposal

President Trump's escalation of rhetoric has followed a pattern familiar from his first-term dealings with adversaries — deliberately cultivating ambiguity about his intentions while tightening the pressure. On Thursday, he told reporters the world would find out "over the next, probably, 10 days" whether a deal would materialise or military action would follow. Asked the next day whether he was considering a limited strike to pressure Iran, Trump responded: "I guess I can say I am considering" it, before adding: "They better negotiate a fair deal."

The compressed timeline sits at the centre of a renewed round of high-stakes brinksmanship. Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, told Fox News Digital that "there's deep skepticism in the Trump administration that this negotiation is going to produce any acceptable outcome," suggesting the talks may be serving a dual purpose: "They're using the diplomatic process to sharpen the choices of the Iranian leadership and to buy time to make sure that we have the appropriate military assets in the region."

Inside the administration, the deliberations are described less as an ideological standoff and more as a "series of updates" for a president reacting to each briefing in real time. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has presented both sides of the argument to Trump. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has laid out military options and timelines. Vice President JD Vance, according to multiple sources who spoke to CBS News, has privately indicated his preference is to avoid launching strikes — a notable data point given Vance's own hawkish rhetoric on Iran's nuclear ambitions. Top national security officials have told Trump the military could be ready for potential strikes as soon as this past Saturday, though the timeline for any action is likely to extend, with all deployed forces expected in place by mid-March.

Iran's diplomatic response has crystallised around a specific offer: Tehran will not export its approximately 300-kilogram stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% purity — close to weapons grade — but is willing to dilute the stockpile down to 20% or below under supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iranian sources told the Guardian that nuclear materials "will not leave the country," effectively ruling out the approach taken under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, when Iran shipped its enriched uranium abroad.

Foreign Minister Araghchi, speaking to US cable news network MS Now, claimed that Washington has not demanded Tehran permanently suspend uranium enrichment, and that the focus is instead on the purity of enrichment and the number of centrifuges to be permitted. "What we are now talking about is how to make sure that Iran's nuclear programme, including enrichment, is peaceful and would remain peaceful forever," Araghchi said. He added that a draft counterproposal could be ready "in the next two or three days" for review by top Iranian officials, with further US-Iran talks possible within a week.

However, Araghchi's characterisation was contradicted by US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz, who confirmed the US is seeking "zero enrichment" by Iran. A White House official reiterated: "The president has been clear that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons or the capacity to build them, and that they cannot enrich uranium." The gap between Iran's offer of controlled enrichment and America's demand for zero enrichment remains the fundamental obstacle to any agreement. A Middle Eastern source with knowledge of the negotiations told Fox News Digital that Iran may show more flexibility on enrichment parameters if substantial sanctions relief is included, but that limitations on its short-range missile programme remain a firm red line set by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

The scale of US military deployments has grown significantly since the Geneva talks began. The USS Abraham Lincoln nuclear-powered carrier, with its 90 aircraft and 5,680 crew, remains in the Arabian Sea, roughly 700 kilometres from Iranian shores. The USS Gerald R. Ford — the world's largest warship — is now heading toward the region through the Mediterranean, creating a two-carrier configuration that military analysts say would be capable of sustaining a bombing campaign lasting weeks.

In total, more than a dozen US warships are deployed across the Middle East, alongside at least 200 warplanes — including approximately 50 fighter jets recently flown to the region in addition to the carrier-based aircraft. Flight-tracking groups have documented surges in cargo, refuelling, and communications aircraft moving from the US and Europe toward the theatre. Satellite imagery has also revealed that Iran has been rebuilding at the Isfahan and Natanz nuclear facilities, with roofs constructed over two damaged buildings — the first major reconstruction activity detected since last June's Operation Midnight Hammer.

Iran and Russia have added their own military dimensions. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Russian naval forces conducted joint exercises in the Strait of Hormuz this week, with the IRGC partially closing the strait for several hours. IRGC Navy Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri stated through semiofficial media that the Guard is prepared to shut down the strait entirely if ordered by Iran's leadership. Supreme Leader Khamenei escalated his own rhetoric, posting to social media: "More dangerous than an aircraft carrier is the weapon that can send it to the bottom of the sea."

Financial markets have responded with increasing alarm. Oil prices climbed more than 5% over the week as traders priced in growing risk of military action. The Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint where Iran conducted its drills — carries more than 14 million barrels per day of oil and condensates, about a third of total worldwide seaborne oil exports according to Kpler data. Roughly three-quarters of that volume flows to China, India, Japan, and South Korea.

The market's central fear is a prolonged disruption to the strait. "Iran could disrupt Hormuz for a lot longer than many market participants think," warned Bob McNally, founder of Rapidan Energy and former White House energy adviser. McNally said Iran possesses far better weaponry and coastline positioning than the Houthi militants who disrupted Red Sea shipping, and noted that insurance companies like Lloyd's would refuse to cover tankers transiting the strait under active hostilities. A prolonged closure could send oil above $100 per barrel, curbing demand and potentially precipitating a global economic downturn.

Rystad Energy estimates oil prices would rapidly rise $10 to $15 per barrel in a wider US-Iran conflict scenario. Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven said the loss of 1 million barrels per day of Iranian exports for a year would raise crude prices by $8 and force a reassessment of escalation risk. JPMorgan's Natasha Kaneva offered a more sanguine assessment, arguing any US military action is likely "to be surgical and designed to avoid Iran's oil production and export infrastructure," and that a post-strike rally would "eventually fade as global fundamentals remain relatively soft." Ten-year US Treasury yields have declined to 4.08%, reflecting safe-haven demand, while gold remains near historic highs above $4,900 per ounce.

The diplomatic and military crisis is inseparable from Iran's domestic turmoil. Protests that erupted over deteriorating economic conditions have continued to flare, with fresh clashes reported at universities as campuses reopened this week. Students at Tehran's Sharif University chanted slogans calling for the end of clerical rule, prompting the university president to warn that authorities would force classes back online.

The death toll from Iran's crackdown remains bitterly disputed. The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency says it has verified 7,114 deaths and has another 11,700 under review. Trump on Friday claimed "32,000 people were killed over a relatively short period of time" — figures that could not be independently verified. Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi countered that the government had published a "comprehensive list of all 3,117" killed, referring to the unrest as a "recent terrorist operation."

Trump has leveraged the humanitarian crisis as additional pressure, claiming his threat of strikes had prevented mass executions. "They were going to hang 837 people. And I gave them the word, if you hang one person, even one person, that you're going to be hit right then and there," he said. The convergence of military threat, humanitarian catastrophe, and diplomatic jockeying creates what former US Ambassador to Qatar Susan Ziadeh described as a dangerous momentum: "Just the fact that you have so much firepower creates a momentum of its own. And sometimes that momentum is a little hard to just put the brakes on."