Walmart’s Q2 FY26: Sales Strength Meets Margin Reality as Tariffs Test the Playbook
Walmart shares fell roughly 4.7% intraday to about $97.71 on Thursday after the retail giant delivered a classic beat-and-miss: stronger-than-expected U.S. comps and revenue, but lighter adjusted earnings per share and a profit outlook that undershot consensus. U.S. same-store sales rose 4.6% versus 4.2% expected, and total revenue reached $177.4 billion (above the $176.05 billion consensus), yet adjusted EPS printed $0.68 against the $0.74 the Street wanted, driven in part by one-time legal and restructuring charges. Management raised full-year net sales growth to 3.75%-4.75% and guided the current quarter’s adjusted EPS to $0.58-$0.60, with full-year EPS at $2.52-$2.62 (consensus was $2.61), underscoring healthy top-line momentum but cautious profitability near term (Source: Yahoo Finance earnings coverage). This report places Walmart’s second quarter in a macro and market context using real-time cross-asset data, the latest labor and inflation prints, and the Fed’s June projections. We unpack the composition of Walmart’s growth, the tariff and pricing dynamics shaping margins, and the implications for equity multiples, bond yields, and sector positioning. We conclude with scenarios and clear portfolio takeaways for investors navigating a consumer slowdown that hasn’t quite arrived—but is increasingly price-sensitive.