Articles Tagged: tsmc

3 articles found

TSMC’s Q3 Report: Are AI Chips Finally Turning the Foundry Market? What TSM’s Earnings Mean for CapEx, Pricing and Taiwan’s Supply‑Chain Risk

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. delivered another record quarter, underscoring how artificial intelligence is rewiring the economics of the semiconductor foundry business. Double‑digit revenue growth, an outsized shift toward advanced nodes, and a higher capital spending floor all point to AI as a structural—not cyclical—driver of utilization and pricing power at the leading edge. The ripple effects extend beyond Hsinchu. ASML’s latest update strengthens the 2026 outlook floor for lithography demand while warning of a significant China sales decline next year, sharpening the geographic rebalancing of tool orders. Meanwhile, fresh U.S.–China trade friction and China’s rare‑earth export curbs add a new layer of policy and supply‑chain risk just as hyperscalers race to deploy compute capacity. This analysis examines TSMC’s Q3 scorecard and outlook, connects the dots to utilization and margins across nodes, interprets the CapEx trajectory through an ASML lens, and assesses the policy overhang. We finish with investor scenarios that frame opportunities and risks for foundries, equipment makers, and AI chip designers through 2026–27.

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After the OpenAI Spark: What AMD’s 24% Surge Means for AI Hardware, Margins and the ‘Nvidia Monopoly’ Thesis

Advanced Micro Devices jolted the market after unveiling a multi‑year GPU supply partnership with OpenAI that includes multi‑tranche warrants allowing OpenAI to acquire up to roughly a 10% equity stake in AMD if performance milestones are met. The stock spiked more than 23% on the session, catalyzing a tech‑led rally even as broader indices diverged, and continued trading near record levels the following day. Beyond the immediate pop, the agreement redefines near‑term AI capital flows and challenges the assumption of a single‑vendor stack dominating AI compute. This piece dissects the catalyst and market reaction, examines hardware economics and margin implications, confronts the supply‑chain bottlenecks that will ultimately govern share shifts, and tests the ‘Nvidia monopoly’ thesis in light of buyer financing structures and circular capital flows. We close with equity angles—valuation, dilution mechanics, and the execution milestones investors should watch through 2026 and beyond.

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TSMC’s Premium: Parsing Taiwan Semiconductor’s Value Amid Policy Shifts, High Capex, and a Steepening Curve

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) sits at the center of the AI compute supply chain. As of intraday Tuesday, its ADRs trade near $237.45, within sight of the 52‑week high at $248.28 and well above the $134.25 low, as investors balance 3nm/5nm leadership, a multi‑year capex program, and evolving policy risk. The macro backdrop remains supportive for capital‑intensive leaders: the effective federal funds rate has held at 4.33% throughout 2025, while the 10‑year Treasury yield is about 4.28% and the 2s10s curve has re‑steepened to roughly +55 bps (10Y 4.28% minus 2Y 3.73%). Ten‑year breakeven inflation is anchored near 2.41%, implying a proxy real 10‑year near 1.87%—a level that enforces valuation discipline but does not preclude premium multiples for cash‑generative cyclicals with durable moats, per FRED and U.S. Treasury data. Cross‑asset pricing corroborates that mix: SPY around $642.10, QQQ near $569.84, gold (GLD) near $310.92, long bonds (TLT) depressed near $86.56, and oil (USO) around $74.66, per Yahoo Finance.

TSMCsemiconductorsAI+9 more