AAPL at $249: Tariff Fears Meet Record Earnings
A 14% drawdown from $288.62 to $248.75 has shaved roughly $600 billion from Apple's market cap since late December. The catalyst is straightforward: escalating tariff rhetoric targeting China-assembled electronics, which account for the bulk of iPhone production. Wall Street's mood has flipped from "Apple Intelligence will unlock a supercycle" to "what happens if iPhones cost 25% more at Best Buy?" Yet the financial picture tells a different story than the stock chart. Apple just posted $143.8 billion in Q1 FY2026 revenue — a record holiday quarter — with $42.1 billion in net income and gross margins holding at 48.2%. The PE ratio has compressed from roughly 37x at the peak to 31.5x today, the most reasonable valuation the stock has offered since mid-2025. For investors who care more about cash flows than headlines, this is the kind of dislocation worth examining closely. The core question: is the tariff risk already priced into a stock trading 1% above its 200-day moving average, or is this the early innings of a deeper correction? The answer depends on whether you believe Apple's supply chain diversification — now spanning India, Vietnam, and Indonesia — can absorb the policy shock.