Amazon’s Capex Supercycle Meets a Market with Questions: Big Profits, Thin Free Cash Flow, and a Stock Searching for Its Next Catalyst
Amazon’s latest report landed with a thud in the equity market even as the numbers dazzled on the income statement. Shares slid sharply in the sessions around the company’s Q2 FY2025 filing—down into the low $210s before stabilizing in the low $220s—despite Amazon posting $18.2 billion in quarterly net income on $167.7 billion of revenue, according to Financial Modeling Prep, citing SEC filings for the quarter ended June 30, 2025. The paradox is central: earnings are robust and margins have expanded, yet free cash flow is pinched as capital expenditures surge to fund a once-in-a-generation data center build. Investors now face a timing problem rather than a direction one. How long will this capital intensity last, and what does it mean for valuation? This article examines Amazon’s income statement quality, cash conversion, leverage, and stock behavior—synthesizing the filings with market data and key ratios—to map scenarios for the next leg.