Mortgage Rates Jump as Iran Crisis Fuels Inflation
Mortgage rates reversed course sharply on Monday, March 2, erasing last week's decline as the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict sent oil prices surging and reignited inflation fears. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped 13 basis points to 6.12%, according to Mortgage News Daily, after briefly dipping below 6% for the first time in several years. The spike follows a week of geopolitical upheaval. U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have disrupted energy markets, grounded thousands of flights across the Middle East, and driven crude oil prices sharply higher. For prospective homebuyers who had been cautiously optimistic about falling rates, the reversal is a gut punch just as the spring housing market gets underway. The rate move underscores how geopolitical risk can rapidly reshape the housing market's trajectory. With the 10-year Treasury yield climbing back above 4% and [ISM manufacturing input prices surging to 70.5](/posts/2026/03/02/treasuries-ism-price-surge-sparks-stagflation-fear) — their highest level in months — the inflationary backdrop is intensifying at precisely the wrong moment for affordability-constrained buyers.