Articles Tagged: soft landing

2 articles found

Powell’s Rate‑Cut Signal: What a Looming Fed Cut Means for Bonds, Stocks and Your Portfolio

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks opened the door to a policy pivot, signaling that a rate cut as early as September is possible while emphasizing policy remains data‑dependent and “not on a preset course.” Markets quickly translated that guidance into easier front‑end rates and firmer risk appetite. The effective federal funds rate has been steady at 4.33% in recent months (July reading), unemployment stands at 4.2% (July), and the 10‑year Treasury yield hovered at 4.26% on August 22—firmly in the mid‑4s—according to Federal Reserve Economic Data and the U.S. Treasury. Cross‑asset moves reflect the same narrative. Over the last 30 days through midday August 25, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gained about 3.5%, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) rose 2.6%, long Treasuries (TLT) advanced roughly 2.0%, and gold (GLD) climbed about 1.2%, per Yahoo Finance market data. The Treasury curve has re‑steepened between 2s and 10s (+58 bps) while the 3M/10Y spread is essentially flat (−1 bp), per U.S. Treasury yield data. This article unpacks the market context and policy dynamics, analyzes valuation and sentiment through a bellwether stock lens, and offers forward‑looking scenarios with portfolio implications for the months ahead.

Federal Reserverate cutTreasury yields+12 more

After Jackson Hole: What Powell’s Rate‑Cut Signal Means for Bonds, Yields and Investor Playbooks

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell used Jackson Hole to underscore a data‑contingent shift: if labor‑market risks continue to build and tariff‑related price effects prove to be a one‑time level shift rather than persistent inflation, policy easing is on the table. His comments that “the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance” and that policy is “not on a preset course” re‑anchored the front end of the Treasury curve and boosted risk appetite, according to BBC and NPR reporting. Equities rallied into the close of his speech, with volatility easing and cyclicals firming alongside mega‑cap tech—consistent with a lower expected discount‑rate path. Market pricing corroborates the pivot. The effective fed funds rate is 4.33% for July (FRED), while the 2‑year Treasury is 3.68% and the 10‑year is 4.26% as of Aug 22 (U.S. Treasury). The 10s–2s spread has re‑steepened to roughly +58 bps and has held positive through mid‑to‑late August, per FMP’s 10y–2y spread series and Treasury yields. Over the last 30 trading days, major benchmarks advanced—SPY +3.3%, QQQ +2.8%, Dow +2.6%, and small‑caps (IWM) +5.2%—while TLT rose ~1.7% and GLD gained ~0.8% (Yahoo Finance). The VIX fell from ~17 to ~14, signaling easier financial conditions (Yahoo Finance). This piece examines the curve mechanics behind Powell’s signal, policy implications, cross‑asset impacts, and portfolio positioning for a data‑dependent glide path.

Federal ReserveJerome PowellJackson Hole+15 more