Housing Holds Firm as Recession Fears Mount
The U.S. housing market is sending a defiantly mixed signal. Existing home sales rose 1.7% in February to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.09 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors — a modest gain that defies the gloomy economic backdrop of rising unemployment and tariff uncertainty. The median price of a home sold last month was $398,000, up 0.3% year over year, marking a market that refuses to crack even as broader recession indicators flash amber. Yet scratch beneath the surface and the picture is more complicated. Sales remain down 1.4% from February 2025, housing supply sits at a tight 3.8-month level — well below the six months considered balanced — and homes are taking 47 days to sell, up from 42 days a year ago. With 30-year mortgage rates hovering at 6.0% and the Federal Reserve holding the fed funds rate at 3.64%, the question for investors and homebuyers is whether housing's resilience is a sign of genuine economic strength or simply the last domino that hasn't fallen yet. The tension between a housing market that won't correct and an economy flashing warning signs has become one of 2026's defining narratives. GDP grew to $31.49 trillion in Q4 2025, but unemployment has ticked up to 4.4% in February — the highest reading since late 2025. Recession whispers are getting louder, and housing sits squarely at the center of the debate.