Articles Tagged: powell

3 articles found

Berkshire Hathaway’s Sept. 25 Earnings — What Buffett’s Q3 moves mean for investors

With stocks near record highs, the Treasury curve steepening, and the Federal Reserve pivoting toward rate cuts, Berkshire Hathaway’s late‑September earnings update arrives at a pivotal moment for capital allocators. The read‑through from Warren Buffett’s Q3 moves will extend far beyond Omaha: buyback cadence, insurance underwriting discipline, and portfolio reshaping will all signal how one of the market’s most seasoned investors is navigating a richly valued regime. Three forces frame the quarter. First, equity prices have climbed as markets priced in monetary easing; even the Fed chair has described equity valuations as fairly highly valued. Second, yields have stepped down across the curve, improving fixed‑income marks and compressing cash yields. Third, energy strategy is in flux, with Occidental Petroleum evaluating a major portfolio decision that could reshape Berkshire’s exposure to a key cyclical sector. This article outlines what to watch in Berkshire’s Q3 print, why the Occidental pivot matters, how to interpret moves through the Buffett’s Alpha framework, and practical ways investors can adjust their playbooks around the print.

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Powell’s Rate‑Cut Signal: What a Looming Fed Cut Means for Bonds, Stocks and Your Portfolio

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks opened the door to a policy pivot, signaling that a rate cut as early as September is possible while emphasizing policy remains data‑dependent and “not on a preset course.” Markets quickly translated that guidance into easier front‑end rates and firmer risk appetite. The effective federal funds rate has been steady at 4.33% in recent months (July reading), unemployment stands at 4.2% (July), and the 10‑year Treasury yield hovered at 4.26% on August 22—firmly in the mid‑4s—according to Federal Reserve Economic Data and the U.S. Treasury. Cross‑asset moves reflect the same narrative. Over the last 30 days through midday August 25, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gained about 3.5%, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) rose 2.6%, long Treasuries (TLT) advanced roughly 2.0%, and gold (GLD) climbed about 1.2%, per Yahoo Finance market data. The Treasury curve has re‑steepened between 2s and 10s (+58 bps) while the 3M/10Y spread is essentially flat (−1 bp), per U.S. Treasury yield data. This article unpacks the market context and policy dynamics, analyzes valuation and sentiment through a bellwether stock lens, and offers forward‑looking scenarios with portfolio implications for the months ahead.

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What Bond Markets Are Saying About the Fed: Yield Curve, Inflation Signals, and a Playbook for Investors

U.S. bond markets have pivoted in the wake of Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, with the Treasury curve re-steepening as front-end yields drift lower and long-end term premium re-emerges. As of August 22, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.26% and the 2-year is 3.68% (U.S. Treasury), putting the 10s–2s spread near +58 basis points, per FRED’s T10Y2Y. Market-implied inflation remains anchored: the 5-year breakeven is 2.48% and the 10-year is 2.41%, while the 10-year TIPS real yield is about 1.94% (FRED). The effective federal funds rate stands at 4.33% for July (FRED), still restrictive by historical standards. Equities have responded with improving breadth and lower volatility, and long-duration bond proxies have stabilized as real yields level off (Yahoo Finance).

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