Gold: Oil Shock Rally Stalls Near $5,100
Gold futures are trading at $5,082, down 1.9% on the session after failing to hold above $5,200 earlier in the day. The metal has been whipsawed by conflicting forces since the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran on February 28 — the initial safe-haven bid pushed prices to $5,423, but a strengthening dollar and rising Treasury yields have since dragged gold back below $5,100. The backdrop is unusually complex. [Oil prices have surged](/posts/2026-03-12/oil-shock-wti-surges-past-95-on-hormuz-crisis) on the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world's daily oil supply passes. That energy shock feeds directly into inflation expectations, which should support gold — but it also pushes the [Federal Reserve](/posts/2026-02-22/deep-dive-how-interest-rates-affect-the-stock-market-from-fed-policy-to-your-portfolio) further from the rate cuts that gold bulls have been counting on. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.21%, up from 3.97% just two weeks ago, increasing the opportunity cost of holding a zero-yield asset. For investors trying to position around this crisis, the question is straightforward: does gold's safe-haven demand outweigh the headwinds from a stronger dollar and higher real yields? The data suggests the answer is nuanced.