Treasuries: March Data Barrage Tests 4% Floor
U.S. Treasury yields are entering March near their lowest levels since late 2024, with the 10-year benchmark hovering at 4.02% as of February 26 — down from 4.18% just two weeks earlier. The rally has been fueled by a potent mix of geopolitical safe-haven demand following the Iran crisis and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle has further to run. But the real test for bond investors lies ahead. The next two weeks deliver an unusually dense cluster of high-impact economic releases: ISM Manufacturing on March 2, Non-Farm Payrolls on March 6, CPI inflation on March 11, and GDP with Core PCE on March 13. Each data point carries the potential to either cement the 10-year's position below 4% or reverse the recent rally entirely. For Treasury holders and prospective buyers alike, understanding what each release means for yields is essential to navigating this pivotal window. With the Fed funds rate already down to 3.64% from 4.33% in mid-2025 and markets pricing additional cuts, the interplay between incoming economic data and monetary policy expectations will dominate the fixed-income landscape through mid-March.