TSMC’s Q3 Report: Are AI Chips Finally Turning the Foundry Market? What TSM’s Earnings Mean for CapEx, Pricing and Taiwan’s Supply‑Chain Risk
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. delivered another record quarter, underscoring how artificial intelligence is rewiring the economics of the semiconductor foundry business. Double‑digit revenue growth, an outsized shift toward advanced nodes, and a higher capital spending floor all point to AI as a structural—not cyclical—driver of utilization and pricing power at the leading edge. The ripple effects extend beyond Hsinchu. ASML’s latest update strengthens the 2026 outlook floor for lithography demand while warning of a significant China sales decline next year, sharpening the geographic rebalancing of tool orders. Meanwhile, fresh U.S.–China trade friction and China’s rare‑earth export curbs add a new layer of policy and supply‑chain risk just as hyperscalers race to deploy compute capacity. This analysis examines TSMC’s Q3 scorecard and outlook, connects the dots to utilization and margins across nodes, interprets the CapEx trajectory through an ASML lens, and assesses the policy overhang. We finish with investor scenarios that frame opportunities and risks for foundries, equipment makers, and AI chip designers through 2026–27.