Mortgage Rates Plunge as 10-Year Treasury Slides: Demand Surges and the Housing Playbook Shifts
A weaker-than-expected August jobs report knocked the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4%, igniting the sharpest daily drop in mortgage rates in more than a year and flipping the switch on pent-up demand. Average 30-year fixed rates are now firmly in the mid-6% range (6.35% as of September 11), with some lenders quoting in the high-5s for top-tier borrowers. The move is resetting near-term affordability calculations, reviving refinance conversations, and reordering the housing playbook for buyers, owners, and builders alike. The transmission mechanism is classic: softer labor data eased bond yields; mortgage-backed securities rallied; primary mortgage rates followed. The result is already visible in the application pipeline. Purchase demand is rising at the fastest clip since 2022, refinance activity is stirring, and homebuilder equities have sprinted higher over the past month. Yet structural constraints—stubborn prices and tight inventory—mean relief is real but not a cure. What happens next hinges on upcoming inflation prints, the Federal Reserve’s path, and whether supply can meet reawakened demand.