Articles Tagged: inflation

6 articles found

Mortgage Demand Surges as 10‑Year Treasury Yield Falls Below 4% — Playbooks for Buyers, Sellers, and Real‑Estate Investors

A sharp bond rally—punctuated by the 10‑year Treasury yield testing sub‑4% intraday and closing near 4.01% on Sept. 11 before edging back to ~4.06% on Sept. 12—pulled mortgage rates to their lowest levels in nearly a year. Average 30‑year fixed quotes fell into the low‑to‑mid 6% range on the latest weekly read (about 6.35%), with some lenders briefly pricing high‑5% scenarios for top‑tier borrowers during the downdraft. Borrower response was immediate: total mortgage applications jumped 9.2% week over week, the strongest since 2022, with refinances up 12% and purchases up 7%. Adjustable‑rate mortgages also saw renewed interest, reflecting a wider spread versus fixed loans. This report explains the mechanics behind the move, quantifies the payment impact, and delivers clear playbooks for buyers, sellers, and investors—along with risk controls if rates snap back.

mortgage rates10-year Treasuryhousing market+9 more

Mortgage Rates Plunge as 10-Year Treasury Slides: Demand Surges and the Housing Playbook Shifts

A weaker-than-expected August jobs report knocked the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4%, igniting the sharpest daily drop in mortgage rates in more than a year and flipping the switch on pent-up demand. Average 30-year fixed rates are now firmly in the mid-6% range (6.35% as of September 11), with some lenders quoting in the high-5s for top-tier borrowers. The move is resetting near-term affordability calculations, reviving refinance conversations, and reordering the housing playbook for buyers, owners, and builders alike. The transmission mechanism is classic: softer labor data eased bond yields; mortgage-backed securities rallied; primary mortgage rates followed. The result is already visible in the application pipeline. Purchase demand is rising at the fastest clip since 2022, refinance activity is stirring, and homebuilder equities have sprinted higher over the past month. Yet structural constraints—stubborn prices and tight inventory—mean relief is real but not a cure. What happens next hinges on upcoming inflation prints, the Federal Reserve’s path, and whether supply can meet reawakened demand.

mortgage rates10-year TreasuryMBA applications+15 more

Walmart’s Q2 FY26: Sales Strength Meets Margin Reality as Tariffs Test the Playbook

Walmart shares fell roughly 4.7% intraday to about $97.71 on Thursday after the retail giant delivered a classic beat-and-miss: stronger-than-expected U.S. comps and revenue, but lighter adjusted earnings per share and a profit outlook that undershot consensus. U.S. same-store sales rose 4.6% versus 4.2% expected, and total revenue reached $177.4 billion (above the $176.05 billion consensus), yet adjusted EPS printed $0.68 against the $0.74 the Street wanted, driven in part by one-time legal and restructuring charges. Management raised full-year net sales growth to 3.75%-4.75% and guided the current quarter’s adjusted EPS to $0.58-$0.60, with full-year EPS at $2.52-$2.62 (consensus was $2.61), underscoring healthy top-line momentum but cautious profitability near term (Source: Yahoo Finance earnings coverage). This report places Walmart’s second quarter in a macro and market context using real-time cross-asset data, the latest labor and inflation prints, and the Fed’s June projections. We unpack the composition of Walmart’s growth, the tariff and pricing dynamics shaping margins, and the implications for equity multiples, bond yields, and sector positioning. We conclude with scenarios and clear portfolio takeaways for investors navigating a consumer slowdown that hasn’t quite arrived—but is increasingly price-sensitive.

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The New Shape of Risk: Treasury Yields, a $36 Trillion Debt Load, and How Trade Policy Could Tilt the Curve

On August 7, 2025, the U.S. Treasury 10-year yield closed near 4.23% while the three‑month bill yielded about 4.32%, leaving the very front of the curve still fractionally inverted even as the 2‑to‑10‑year spread has turned positive. That kinked profile underscores a hinge moment for U.S. rates: policy is easing from last year’s peak, but term premiums and fiscal arithmetic are anchoring longer maturities higher. Federal debt stood around $36.2 trillion as of January 1, 2025, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), while nominal GDP ran near a $30.3 trillion annualized pace in the second quarter, a combination that keeps debt sustainability and term premium in focus. With the unemployment rate at 4.2% in July and the effective fed funds rate averaging 4.33% in recent months, the macro picture is neither stagflationary nor fully benign. UBS argues that proposed tariff hikes are an “escalate‑to‑de‑escalate” tactic likely to settle at an effective rate near 15%, nudging inflation only modestly higher and leaving risk assets supported. However, this raises questions about how trade policy noise and persistent deficits interact with the yield curve—and whether markets are underpricing the cost of rolling the nation’s debt at today’s coupon levels.

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McDonald's Q2 2025 Earnings: A Deep Dive into Financial Performance and Market Reactions

In a striking display of financial resilience, McDonald's Corporation has reported robust earnings for the second quarter of 2025, with revenue climbing to $6.843 billion. This development, as revealed in their latest SEC filings, underscores the fast-food giant's ability to navigate the complex economic landscape. Investors and analysts are keenly observing these results, which not only reflect McDonald's strategic initiatives but also hint at broader market trends. The stakes are high, as these earnings could influence investor sentiment and market dynamics in the consumer services sector. This article will dissect the financial data, explore contrasting perspectives from various sources, and evaluate the implications of McDonald's performance in the current economic context.

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Federal Reserve's Delicate Balance: Navigating Interest Rate Decisions Amidst Political and Economic Pressures

In a climate of economic uncertainty, the Federal Reserve faces mounting pressure to cut interest rates, a move that has captured the attention of global markets and political leaders alike. As of August 5, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained the federal funds rate at 4.33%, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). This decision comes amidst a backdrop of lackluster employment growth and persistent calls from President Trump for a more aggressive monetary policy. While some market analysts, including those from Goldman Sachs, anticipate a series of rate cuts, the FOMC remains cautious, weighing the implications of such moves on both domestic and international fronts. This article delves into the complex dynamics at play, examining the latest data and divergent perspectives that shape the Fed's policy decisions.

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