Gold: The $5,200 Paradox — Why the Metal Keeps Climbing Despite Falling Inflation and Rate Cuts
Gold futures are trading at $5,205.70 per ounce as of February 26, 2026 — a price level that would have seemed fantastical just two years ago. Despite a modest 0.4% pullback on the day, the yellow metal is up roughly 83% from its 52-week low of $2,844 and remains firmly entrenched above its 50-day moving average of $4,829. The rally that began in earnest during 2024 has not only continued but accelerated, smashing through resistance level after resistance level even as the Federal Reserve has cut rates aggressively and inflation has moderated to roughly 2.2% year-over-year. The conventional playbook says gold thrives when inflation is high and real yields are negative. Neither condition holds today. The Fed funds rate has been slashed from 4.33% to 3.64%, the 10-year Treasury yield has drifted down to 4.04%, and CPI growth has decelerated meaningfully. Yet gold keeps rising. The explanation lies in a more complex and arguably more durable set of structural drivers: persistent central bank reserve diversification, geopolitical fragmentation, credit market anxiety — JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently warned that his 'anxiety is high' over elevated asset prices — and a growing investor conviction that the global monetary order itself is shifting. For individual investors, this creates a genuine dilemma. Gold's 52-week high of $5,626.80 sits only 8% above current levels, meaning the metal is consolidating after an extraordinary run rather than starting a new one. The question is whether the structural tailwinds powering this multi-year rally have further to run, or whether $5,200 gold has already priced in the best-case scenario.