Pfizer After Q3: Can an Oncology and Rare‑Disease Pivot Replace Faltering COVID Vaccine Cash Flow?
Pfizer’s third quarter delivered something investors haven’t seen in a while: stabilizing sentiment. Management raised and narrowed full‑year EPS guidance for 2025 and the average analyst price target has edged up over the past year. Yet the fundamental challenge remains unchanged—COVID‑era revenues are resetting lower while patent cliffs and payer pressure intensify. That puts the onus on Pfizer’s replacement engine: higher‑margin oncology and rare‑disease franchises, plus disciplined business development, to backfill free cash flow (FCF). Drawing on Q3 signals, competitor playbooks in immunology and obesity, and current macro conditions, this analysis maps the credibility, cadence, and constraints of Pfizer’s pivot—and what investors should watch through 2026–2028.