Nike’s Sept. 30 Earnings: What the Quarter Says About Consumer Demand, China and the Holiday Outlook
Nike entered its fiscal 2026 with a more encouraging top line than expected and a tougher cost reality than investors hoped. The company posted an unexpected 1% revenue increase to $11.72 billion and a sizable EPS beat, even as gross margins came under renewed pressure from elevated discounting and a larger-than-expected tariff bill. Management’s holiday-quarter guidance points to a low-single-digit revenue decline, despite a modest foreign-exchange tailwind, underscoring a recovery that remains uneven by region and channel. The first quarter highlights the core tensions in Nike’s turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill: wholesale is improving as retail partners restock for key launches, while the direct-to-consumer channel and Greater China remain soft; a resurgent performance pipeline is gaining traction in running, but profit expansion is constrained by tariffs and ongoing inventory cleanup. This article examines the quarter’s key metrics, channel and regional dynamics, the China and Converse overhang, Nike’s organizational and innovation pivots, and what the setup looks like for the holiday season and beyond. We also situate Nike’s print in the broader consumer and macro context, including the latest labor market data and yields.