Articles Tagged: case shiller

4 articles found

Jobs Curveball vs. Rate Cut: How August’s Report Could Sway a September Fed Move — Signals for Investors and Homebuyers

Friday’s August jobs report lands less than two weeks before the Federal Reserve’s September 16–17 meeting, with markets primed for a potential policy pivot and mortgage rates easing to their lowest levels since last fall. The twist is that revisions risk is unusually elevated after July’s sharp downside shock and subsequent leadership turmoil at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That sets up a high‑volatility window for bonds, equities, and housing finance even if the headline payroll number isn’t a blowout. Weekly jobless claims have drifted higher but remain in a historically healthy range, openings have cooled, and mortgage rates have slipped toward 6.5%—all consistent with softer labor demand. In a politicized backdrop, how quickly investors and borrowers interpret the details beyond the headline could be the edge.

jobs reportnonfarm payrollsFed rate cut+9 more

Canceled Contracts Spike to 15%: What Rising Fall‑Throughs Signal for Home Prices, Mortgage Demand and the Fall Market

Pending home sales slipped in July and fall‑throughs surged to the highest level since at least 2017 tracking—an unmistakable stress flare as the market pivots into the critical autumn listing season. The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) fell 0.4% month over month in July (still up 0.7% year over year), while Redfin’s analysis shows 15% of contracts canceled, with Texas and Florida metros topping the list, according to CNBC. Mortgage rates drifted higher through July before easing in August, offering a modest tailwind heading into September.

pending home salescontract cancellationsfall-throughs+12 more

The Rise of ‘Taylor Swift Taxes’: How New Levies on Vacation Homes Are Reshaping Luxury Real Estate, Local Revenues, and Buyer Behavior

Across coastal enclaves and mountain resort towns, a new wave of tax policy is targeting luxury second homes and high-dollar real estate transactions. Nicknamed “Taylor Swift taxes” in Rhode Island—where the pop star owns an oceanfront estate—the shorthand now encompasses surcharges on non-primary residences, high-threshold transfer levies, and occupancy tests that determine who pays what. Proponents frame these measures as fiscal necessities and fairness tools that fund affordability programs; critics warn they will dent local service economies, throttle transaction volume, and produce volatile revenues. This analysis clarifies how the policies work, where they’re spreading, what they imply for prices and volumes, how reliable the revenues are, and the evolving playbook for buyers, sellers, and policymakers.

Taylor Swift taxmansion taxsecond home surcharge+13 more

California Housing Market 2025: Rates, Supply, Climate Risk, and Policy Shake-Ups

California enters late 2025 as one of the nation’s most expensive, supply‑constrained housing markets—now shaped as much by the path of interest rates and a tightening insurance landscape as by zoning reform and construction costs. National rate dynamics are again dictating affordability and transaction volume, while climate‑driven losses in wine country and other high‑risk zones are repricing risk in appraisals, listings, and buyer decisions. Mortgage demand remains near cyclical lows, cancellations have climbed to a series high, and 30‑year mortgage rates have eased modestly from early‑summer peaks. At the same time, explicit wildfire‑hazard disclosures are associated with measurable sale‑price discounts, and premium spikes in high‑risk regions are complicating closings. This report integrates near‑term market signals with California’s policy framework (RHNA targets, SB 9/ADUs) and climate‑insurance realities to frame scenarios for the next 12–18 months—and highlight the watch list for the Bay Area, Southern California, the Inland Empire, and beyond.

California housing marketmortgage ratesCase-Shiller+18 more