Articles Tagged: breakevens

2 articles found

What Bond Markets Are Saying About the Fed: Yield Curve, Inflation Signals, and a Playbook for Investors

U.S. bond markets have pivoted in the wake of Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, with the Treasury curve re-steepening as front-end yields drift lower and long-end term premium re-emerges. As of August 22, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.26% and the 2-year is 3.68% (U.S. Treasury), putting the 10s–2s spread near +58 basis points, per FRED’s T10Y2Y. Market-implied inflation remains anchored: the 5-year breakeven is 2.48% and the 10-year is 2.41%, while the 10-year TIPS real yield is about 1.94% (FRED). The effective federal funds rate stands at 4.33% for July (FRED), still restrictive by historical standards. Equities have responded with improving breadth and lower volatility, and long-duration bond proxies have stabilized as real yields level off (Yahoo Finance).

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The Labor Market’s Slow Rebalancing: Wage Disinflation Meets a Normalizing Yield Curve

The multi-asset snapshot now points to a cooler but resilient growth backdrop with disinflation traction and a yield curve that has turned positively sloped. As of Friday’s close, SPY was 643.44 and QQQ 577.34, with DIA at 449.53 and IWM at 227.13; developed ex-U.S. (EFA) sat at 92.19 and EM (EEM) at 49.94, according to Yahoo Finance. Treasury yields reflect a normalized curve: 2Y 3.75%, 5Y 3.85%, 10Y 4.33%, and 30Y 4.92% (U.S. Treasury, 2025-08-15), leaving 2s10s at +58 bps and 2s30s at +117 bps. Market-based inflation expectations remain anchored with 5y breakeven at ~2.42%, 10y at ~2.38%, and 5y5y forward near ~2.34% (FRED). Headline PCE inflation was ~2.6% YoY in June, with core PCE ~2.8% YoY, and CPI in July at ~2.7% (core ~3.0%) (FRED/BEA). The unemployment rate is near 4.2% with prime-age employment still elevated and wage growth easing toward high-3%s (BLS/FRED). Volatility is subdued in equities (VIX ~15–16) but episodic in rates (MOVE recently eased after spikes) per Yahoo Finance and FRED. The July FOMC statement emphasized balanced risks and data dependence; the SEP medians still show disinflation progressing toward 2% and the policy rate drifting toward the mid-3s over the next two years (Federal Reserve/FOMC).

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