After Tesla’s Oct. 1 Q3 Print: What the Numbers Really Mean for EV Demand, Margins and FSD
Tesla’s third-quarter sales print delivered a surprise—and a signal. Deliveries rose roughly 7% year over year to 497,099 vehicles, reversing two straight quarters of declines and outpacing muted expectations of about 456,000. Shares spiked intraday toward the $470 level following the report, reflecting optimism around a cheaper Model Y and a broader non-auto narrative that now leans on software and robotics. But the headline number, strong as it looks, sits at the intersection of policy-driven pull-forward demand and a more uncertain underlying run-rate. With the federal $7,500 EV credit expiring on Sept. 30, industry sales surged in Q3 as buyers accelerated purchases. That sets up October and November as critical months to measure demand resilience—and to gauge how Tesla balances volumes, pricing, and margins just as regulators intensify scrutiny of its Full Self-Driving software. This analysis unpacks the unit beat, examines near-term demand scenarios, walks through the margin math in a post-credit environment, assesses the FSD regulatory overhang, and details the markers to watch on the upcoming earnings call.