Articles Tagged: ai stocks

2 articles found

Private-Credit’s Reckoning: Why Gundlach Says the Next Crisis Will Be Off‑Balance‑Sheet — And How Investors Should Position Now

Jeffrey Gundlach is ringing a late‑cycle bell. The DoubleLine founder argues the next market crisis won’t be born in the regulated banking system but in private credit — an off‑balance‑sheet ecosystem of opaque loans, permissive structures and vehicles sold to retail with promises that may be impossible to honor under stress. It’s an arresting call from a veteran who says today’s market ranks among the least healthy of his career. The warning lands as policy fog thickens and market pricing shifts: rate‑cut odds have whipsawed, volatility has resurfaced, and high‑frequency signs of credit strain — from foreclosures to rising serious delinquencies — are creeping higher from rock‑bottom levels. The combination of stretched valuations in hot pockets (AI and data centers), a consumer that looks increasingly bifurcated, and a private‑credit complex with liquidity mismatches forms the scaffolding for Gundlach’s caution. This article unpacks the thesis and its mechanics: why private credit is vulnerable, how a redemption wave could propagate losses, what the macro setup implies for timing, the early real‑economy cracks to watch, and a practical positioning playbook built around liquidity, defense and a clear trigger‑monitoring framework.

private creditJeffrey Gundlachliquidity mismatch+13 more

The Post‑Shutdown Reset: How Delayed Data, Rising Yields and Fed Ambiguity Are Rewriting December Rate Odds

Markets just experienced their sharpest one-day pullback in a month as the odds of a December rate cut were repriced from a near lock to a coin flip. The shift is not happening in a vacuum. It reflects a rare confluence: a government shutdown that has impaired the flow of official economic data, a Treasury market where long yields have firmed, and a Federal Reserve whose public messaging has turned noticeably split. The result is a new regime of uncertainty. Stocks are recalibrating, volatility is higher, and cross-asset signals point to valuation adjustment rather than panic. With the White House signaling that October inflation and jobs data may never be published, investors and policymakers are flying with instruments—private indicators, high-frequency activity metrics, and market-based expectations—while acknowledging their limits. The next four weeks will be defined by what data does and doesn’t arrive, how the 10-year yield behaves, and whether the Fed’s internal debate resolves toward a pause or a smaller-than-assumed cut.

Federal Reserveinterest ratesDecember rate cut+12 more