Nvidia’s AI Flywheel: Self-Funding Growth Machine or Late-Cycle Euphoria?
In late May, Nvidia reported a quarter that would be outlandish for most companies and merely exceptional for itself: $44.06 billion in revenue and $18.78 billion in net income for Q1 FY2026, the fiscal quarter ended April 27, 2025, according to SEC filings. Free cash flow in the period reached $26.19 billion—enough to cover aggressive buybacks, rising R&D, and capital investments while still lifting the cash stockpile. Shares subsequently pushed to fresh 52-week highs, peaking near $183.88, according to Yahoo Finance. Investors are asking a deceptively simple question with complex implications: Is Nvidia’s run the rational repricing of a dominant platform business or a late-cycle overshoot tethered to capex exuberance at the hyperscalers? This article examines the financial evidence, valuation and cash conversion dynamics, and the practical constraints that could test the durability of this AI bull case. We synthesize official filings and market data to separate verified operating power from speculative extrapolation—and to identify what would have to go right, or wrong, from here.