After the Jobs Curveball: How a September Fed Decision Could Reshape Stocks, Bonds and Mortgage Rates
Last week’s jobs curveball — an unexpectedly weak August payrolls print (nonfarm payrolls +22,000) coupled with a retroactive Bureau of Labor Statistics revision that reduced prior tallies by roughly 911,000 jobs — forced markets to reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. That labor weakness arrived alongside a modest August CPI uptick and firmer core readings, producing a classic policy trade-off: weakening labor-market momentum that leans toward easing versus inflation signals that argue for caution. Markets quickly repriced the path of policy, moving short-dated futures and pushing Treasury yields and mortgage pricing lower. The Fed’s September decision — whether a cut, a pause, or a recalibration of forward guidance — will ripple across equities, the Treasury curve and mortgage markets, with immediate implications for monthly payments, housing demand and sector leadership. This article explains what happened, how markets reacted, the transmission channels to mortgage rates and housing activity, and practical scenarios for investors and borrowers preparing for the Fed’s next move.