How many existing homes were sold in February 2026?

Existing home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.09 million units in February 2026, a 1.7% increase from January but 1.4% below February 2025.

What is the current median home price?

The median existing home price was $398,000 in February 2026, up 0.3% year-over-year, marking the 32nd consecutive month of annual price increases.

How much housing inventory is available?

There were 1.29 million homes for sale at the end of February, representing a 3.8-month supply. A balanced market typically has about 6 months of supply.

What are current mortgage rates?

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.05% in February 2026, down from 6.84% a year earlier, according to Freddie Mac.

When is the next CPI report?

The February 2026 Consumer Price Index is scheduled for release on March 11, 2026. Economists expect headline CPI of approximately 0.3% month-over-month.

Home Sales Edge Up 1.7% Ahead of Key CPI Data

Existing home sales rose 1.7% in February to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.09 million units, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. The modest rebound follows January's sharp 8.4% decline — a slump we previewed — and arrives one day before the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases February's Consumer Price Index — a report that could reshape rate-cut expectations and, by extension, the mortgage outlook for spring.

The headline number beat some estimates but the details paint a more nuanced picture. Sales remain 1.4% below February 2025 levels despite meaningful improvements in affordability. The Housing Affordability Index hit 117.6, its highest reading since March 2022, yet transaction volumes still lag well behind what fundamentals suggest they should be.

With 30-year mortgage rates hovering near 6.0% and the Fed holding its benchmark rate at 3.64%, tomorrow's CPI print looms large. A cooler reading could accelerate the path to lower borrowing costs; a hot print could freeze the nascent recovery in its tracks.

The Numbers Behind the Rebound

February's 4.09 million annualized pace represents a partial recovery from January's weather-depressed reading of 4.02 million. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that wage growth is now outpacing home price growth by nearly four percentage points, and mortgage rates are measurably lower than a year ago — the 30-year fixed averaged 6.05% in February, down from 6.84% twelve months earlier.

The regional breakdown was uneven. The West led with an 8.2% monthly surge to 790,000 units, while the South gained 1.6% and the Midwest edged up 1.1%. The Northeast was the outlier, dropping 6.0% to 470,000 units.

Median sale prices ticked up 0.3% year-over-year to $398,000, marking the 32nd consecutive month of annual price gains. Single-family homes rose 2.5% month-over-month while condo and co-op sales fell 5.3%, extending a persistent weakness in the multi-family segment.

Supply Remains the Bottleneck

Total housing inventory stood at 1.29 million units at the end of February, up 2.4% from January and 4.9% from a year ago. At the current pace, that translates to a 3.8-month supply — unchanged from January and well short of the six months considered balanced between buyers and sellers.

"Inventory is growing, but sluggishly," Yun said. "If demand picks up notably in the coming months and outpaces supply growth, home prices will inevitably rise. That is why increasing supply is so important to help limit home price growth, improve housing affordability, and boost transactions."

There are signs of incremental improvement. Redfin data shows nearly 45,000 homes that were delisted last year were relisted for sale in January — the highest January figure in a decade and a record 3.6% of listed inventory. Homes are also sitting longer, with the median time on market stretching to 47 days from 42 a year ago, giving buyers slightly more negotiating room. For a deeper look at where rates may go next, see our mortgage rate outlook.

Buyer Mix Shifts as First-Timers Return

First-time buyers represented 34% of February sales, up from 31% in both January and a year ago. The improvement coincides with the affordability index reaching its best level in nearly four years, driven by the combination of moderating price growth and lower mortgage rates.

Cash transactions accounted for 31% of sales, up from 27% the prior month but roughly flat year-over-year. Investors and second-home buyers held steady at 16% of the market. Distressed sales — foreclosures and short sales — ticked up to 3% from 2% in January, though they remain historically low.

The data suggests that first-time buyers are cautiously re-entering the market as conditions improve, but they remain far from the 40%+ share that characterized pre-pandemic norms. The combination of still-elevated mortgage rates and limited starter-home inventory continues to act as a filter.

CPI Tomorrow: The Macro Event That Matters More

As significant as today's housing data is, markets are squarely focused on tomorrow's February CPI release. Economists expect headline inflation to come in at 0.3% month-over-month, which would push the annual rate to approximately 2.5% from January's 2.4% — the lowest reading since May 2025.

The Federal Reserve has held the fed funds rate at 3.64% after cutting 175 basis points from the cycle peak. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.15%, and 30-year mortgage rates have stabilized near 6.0%. A benign CPI print could give the Fed room for additional cuts later this year, potentially pulling mortgage rates below 5.75% and unlocking pent-up demand from sidelined buyers.

Conversely, a hotter-than-expected reading would reinforce the Fed's cautious stance and likely push mortgage rates back toward the 6.2-6.3% range that prevailed in late 2025. For housing, the difference between those two scenarios could mean hundreds of thousands of additional — or foregone — transactions in the second half of the year.

Spring Outlook: Cautious Optimism, Real Constraints

NAR has forecast home sales to jump 14% in 2026, a projection that assumes continued improvements in affordability and a gradual loosening of inventory constraints. February's data is consistent with that narrative but does not yet confirm it. With 6 million more jobs than in 2019 but annual home sales running 1 million units lower, the gap between economic fundamentals and housing activity remains striking.

The spring selling season will be the critical test. Sellers who pulled listings last fall are returning, mortgage applications have shown tentative improvement, and the affordability index is trending in the right direction. But rates need to cooperate, and that depends on inflation.

For now, the housing market is edging forward rather than sprinting — a 1.7% monthly gain after an 8.4% decline does not constitute momentum. What it does confirm is that the floor under the market remains intact, and that buyers will respond when conditions improve even modestly. Tomorrow's CPI will determine whether those conditions continue to improve or stall.

Conclusion

February's existing home sales report delivers a mixed verdict: a small step forward on volume, improving affordability, and a slowly growing buyer pool, but persistent supply constraints and price resilience that keep the market from truly thawing. The 4.09 million annualized pace is better than January but still well below what job growth and wage gains would suggest.

The real question is whether tomorrow's CPI report reinforces the disinflationary trend that has brought mortgage rates down nearly a full percentage point year-over-year. If February inflation comes in at or below expectations, the spring housing market has a genuine tailwind. If it surprises to the upside, the window of improved affordability could narrow just as the peak selling season begins.

Investors, homebuyers, and the Fed alike are watching the same number. For the housing market, CPI has become the most important data point that has nothing to do with housing.

Frequently Asked Questions

Sources & References

NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.7% Increase in February

www.globenewswire.com

February home sales see small rebound, but supply growth is 'sluggish'

www.cnbc.com

NAR Existing-Home Sales Data

www.nar.realtor

Bureau of Labor Statistics - Consumer Price Index

www.bls.gov

Home Sales Edge Up 1.7% Ahead of Key CPI Data

Key Takeaways

The Numbers Behind the Rebound

Supply Remains the Bottleneck

Buyer Mix Shifts as First-Timers Return

CPI Tomorrow: The Macro Event That Matters More

Spring Outlook: Cautious Optimism, Real Constraints

Conclusion

Frequently Asked Questions

Sources & References

Related Topics

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