Developing: Khamenei Confirmed Dead as Iran Retaliates Across Gulf States and US-Israel Launch Fresh Strikes on Tehran

The joint US-Israeli military operation launched early Saturday morning targeted Iran's leadership, military infrastructure, and nuclear-related facilities across 24 of Iran's 31 provinces, according to the Iranian Red Crescent. President Donald Trump said the objective was to "ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon" and to "destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground."

The operation followed weeks of deteriorating diplomatic talks. The US and Iran had engaged in three rounds of indirect negotiations focused on Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, but Washington was unable to secure guarantees of denuclearization. According to Matt Gerken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, Washington and Jerusalem concluded that with Iran's regime at a moment of "critical vulnerability," they "could not afford to miss the opportunity to reshape the region."

The Israel Defense Forces said approximately 200 fighter jets participated in "extensive attacks" across western and central Iran, simultaneously dropping hundreds of munitions on roughly 500 targets. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed his forces "destroyed the compound of the tyrant Khamenei in the heart of Tehran." The strikes also killed at least 40 Iranian officials, including Defence Council secretary Ali Shamkhani, Defence Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh, and IRGC commander General Mohammad Pakpour, according to intelligence sources cited by CBS News.

More than 200 people have been killed and 700 injured across Iran, according to the Red Crescent's Saturday count. At least 148 people died in a strike on a school in southern Iran, according to a local prosecutor. The casualty toll is expected to rise as communication remains severely disrupted.

Tehran's response has been swift and far-reaching. The IRGC said its forces targeted multiple sites in Israel as well as five major US military facilities across the region: Al Udeid airbase in Qatar, Al Dhafra airbase in the UAE, the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, Ali Al Salem airbase in Kuwait, and Muwaffaq Salti airbase in Jordan. The IRGC also claimed to have struck a US combat support vessel and destroyed a US radar system in Qatar.

The civilian impact has been significant. Dubai International Airport sustained damage in an overnight incident, with four staff injured. In Abu Dhabi, a drone intercepted over Zayed International Airport killed one person — described as an Asian national — and injured seven others. Iran's retaliatory fire also hit the iconic Burj Al Arab hotel in Dubai, causing a minor fire on its outer facade, and struck one of the berths at Jebel Ali Port, a major logistics hub. Shrapnel hit Etihad Towers in Abu Dhabi, injuring a woman and her child. Explosions were also reported in Doha, Riyadh, Amman, and Kuwait City.

The EU naval mission EUNAVFOR ASPIDES reported that the IRGC sent radio warnings to vessels that "no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz," through which approximately 20% of global oil and gas shipments transit. US Central Command stated that its forces had "successfully defended against hundreds of Iranian missile and drone attacks" with no US casualties and only "minimal" damage to installations.

In Israel, Iran launched approximately 150 ballistic missiles and dozens of attack drones. Air defence systems intercepted a number of missiles, but at least nine people were killed and more than 450 injured. The US Embassy in Jerusalem said it is "not in a position at this time to evacuate or directly assist Americans" trying to leave Israel, as Ben Gurion Airport remains closed to all commercial flights.

The death of Khamenei — only the second supreme leader in the Islamic Republic's 47-year history — has triggered a constitutionally mandated succession process under the most extreme circumstances imaginable. Iran's Supreme National Security Council confirmed the appointment of Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, a member of the Guardian Council and Assembly of Experts, to an interim Leadership Council alongside President Pezeshkian and Chief Justice Ejei.

The formal selection of a permanent successor falls to the Assembly of Experts, a body of 88 senior clerics elected by direct vote every eight years. Under normal circumstances, this process could take weeks or months. With the country under active bombardment and a near-total internet blackout, the timeline is uncertain.

Analysts caution that the killing of Khamenei does not equate to regime change. The Council on Foreign Relations noted that "taking out Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is not the same as regime change. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is the regime." Iran's top security official, Ali Larijani, warned that any "secessionist groups" attempting to exploit the situation would face a harsh response.

David Silbey, a professor of military history at Cornell University, suggested that without a US ground campaign, the strategy appears aimed at prompting domestic upheaval: "The goal is to get the regime overthrown domestically, either by a popular uprising or a palace coup." However, he warned that a cornered regime could be more dangerous: "If the regime feels threatened, it'll lash out harder than it would if it thought it could ride out the attacks."

The international response has split broadly along familiar geopolitical lines, though with notable caveats. Russia and China have condemned the US-Israeli strikes, but analysts say neither is positioned to offer meaningful military support to Tehran.

China, which purchased more than 80% of Iran's shipped oil in 2025 — representing 13.5% of all crude China imported by sea — has called on the US and Israel to "immediately stop military actions" and restore dialogue. However, Beijing has refrained from strong direct support for Iran, focusing instead on diplomatic messaging. Ahmed Aboudouh, a fellow at Chatham House, noted that "a weakened Iran, paradoxically, may suit Chinese interests" as it would become "more diplomatically, economically and technologically dependent on China."

Russia's capacity to intervene is limited by its ongoing war in Ukraine, which has "hollowed out Russia's capacity to project power beyond its borders," according to BCA Research. Moscow's influence in the Middle East is expected to diminish further.

In the UK, Defence Secretary John Healey said the strikes put British troops and civilians in the Middle East at risk, while noting that "few will mourn" the leader of an "evil regime." The UN Secretary-General condemned the attacks during an emergency Security Council meeting, calling for immediate de-escalation.

Democrats in the US Congress, joined by a few Republicans, are pushing to force a vote on a war powers resolution to limit Trump's authority in Iran. Senator Tom Cotton acknowledged there is "not a simple answer" to the question of Iran's political future. Multiple potential 2028 Democratic presidential hopefuls have publicly opposed the strikes.

Financial markets face their first test when trading resumes Sunday evening, with oil at the centre of attention. Brent crude settled at $72.48 per barrel on Friday, up roughly 19% year-to-date, while West Texas Intermediate closed at $62.02, up about 16%. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, expects crude prices to jump $3 to $5 per barrel immediately, translating to an 8-to-12 cent increase per gallon of gasoline over the following week to ten days.

The worst-case scenario — a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz — could drive oil prices up $20 per barrel and push gasoline costs up 50 cents per gallon, potentially requiring the US and allies to tap strategic petroleum reserves. OPEC+ announced Sunday it would raise production by a modest 206,000 barrels per day, though the increase does little to offset the threat of major supply disruptions.

Middle East stock markets opened lower on Sunday. Oman's MSX30 index tumbled more than 3%, Saudi Arabia's Tadawul fell nearly 1.5%, Qatar's benchmark dropped almost 2%, and Jordan's exchange declined 2%. Kuwait's stock exchange suspended trading entirely until further notice. The UAE's exchanges, which open Monday, closed lower on Friday.

Aviation has been devastated, with 1,579 additional flights cancelled on Sunday alone. Dubai International saw 70% of its flights cancelled. Airlines including Emirates, British Airways, Wizz Air, Lufthansa, Air India, Virgin Atlantic, and Turkish Airlines have suspended regional operations, some through March 7. The UAE has ordered all schools and universities to switch to remote learning from Monday through Wednesday.

Standard Chartered's Global Head of Research, Eric Robertsen, noted that investors had already been underpricing geopolitical risk, with commodity-linked currencies outperforming — suggesting markets are paying premiums for exposure to scarce resources. Ben Emons of FedWatch Advisors warned that markets could swing between "risk-on relief — if regime collapse removes the threat of oil blockades or nuclear escalation — and risk-off persistence if conflict drags on and supply disruptions intensify."