What is a good CAGR for an investment?

There's no universal "good" CAGR — it depends on the asset class and time period. The S&P 500 has historically delivered roughly 10% CAGR over long periods. A stock beating that benchmark suggests outperformance, while bonds typically deliver lower CAGR with less volatility. For company revenue, a 15–20% CAGR over five years is generally considered strong growth.

How is CAGR different from total return?

Total return measures the overall percentage gain or loss from start to finish. CAGR expresses that total return as an equivalent annual compound rate. For example, a 60% total return over three years equals a 16.96% CAGR. CAGR is more useful for comparison because it normalizes for different time periods.

Can CAGR be negative?

Yes. If an investment's ending value is lower than its beginning value, the CAGR will be negative, indicating a compound annual loss. For example, a stock that falls from $100 to $70 over two years has a CAGR of approximately −16.3%.

Over what time period should I calculate CAGR?

CAGR is most meaningful over periods of three years or longer. Shorter periods can produce misleadingly extreme annualized rates. For stock and fund evaluation, 5-year and 10-year CAGRs are standard benchmarks. For company revenue or earnings growth, 3–5 year CAGRs are commonly used in analyst reports.

How do I calculate CAGR in a spreadsheet?

In Excel or Google Sheets, use the formula: =(Ending/Beginning)^(1/Years)-1. For example, if cell A1 has the beginning value, B1 has the ending value, and C1 has the number of years: =(B1/A1)^(1/C1)-1. Format the result as a percentage.

Deep Dive: What Is CAGR (Compound Annual Gro...

NVIDIA's revenue surged from $39.3 billion in one quarter to $57.0 billion just three quarters later — a pace that, annualized, represents roughly 56% compound growth. Apple, meanwhile, grew its trailing twelve-month revenue from $395.8 billion to $435.7 billion over the same period, a steadier but still impressive 10.1%. How do you compare two such different growth trajectories on equal footing? The answer is CAGR — Compound Annual Growth Rate.

CAGR is one of the most widely used metrics in finance, appearing in earnings calls, analyst reports, investment prospectuses, and stock screeners. It smooths out the noise of quarterly volatility to give you a single annualized growth rate that captures how an investment or business metric evolved over time. Whether you're evaluating a stock, comparing mutual fund performance, or sizing up an entire economy's expansion, CAGR is the tool that puts everything on the same playing field.

Despite its ubiquity, CAGR is often misunderstood. It's not the same as an average return. It doesn't tell you anything about the path taken between the start and end dates. And it can be dangerously misleading if applied to the wrong time frame. This guide breaks down exactly what CAGR measures, how to calculate it, and — just as importantly — when not to rely on it.

The CAGR Formula: Simple Math With Powerful Results

CAGR answers a straightforward question: if a value grew steadily from point A to point B over a given number of years, what would that constant annual growth rate be? The formula is:

CAGR = (Ending Value / Beginning Value) ^ (1 / Number of Years) − 1

The exponent (1 / Number of Years) is what makes CAGR different from a simple percentage change. It accounts for compounding — the fact that each year's growth builds on the previous year's result, not on the original starting value.

Consider a $10,000 investment that grows to $16,000 over three years. The total return is 60%, but the CAGR tells a more precise story: ($16,000 / $10,000) ^ (1/3) − 1 = 16.96%. That means a hypothetical investment growing at exactly 16.96% each year would also reach $16,000 from $10,000 in three years. The real investment almost certainly didn't grow at a constant 16.96% — it may have jumped 30% one year and fallen 5% the next — but CAGR gives you the smoothed equivalent rate.

This distinction matters because it lets you compare investments with wildly different annual patterns. A volatile tech stock and a steady dividend payer might both deliver 10% CAGR over five years, but the experience of holding each one would feel very different.

Calculating CAGR With Real Market Data

Let's apply the formula to actual companies reporting in February 2026.

NVIDIA's Revenue CAGR: NVIDIA reported $39.3 billion in revenue for Q4 FY2025 (ending January 2025), then posted $57.0 billion for Q3 FY2026 (ending October 2025) — three quarters later. To annualize this: ($57.0B / $39.3B) ^ (1 / 0.75) − 1 = approximately 56%. That extraordinary pace reflects the AI infrastructure buildout driving data center GPU demand.

NVIDIA Quarterly Revenue (Billions USD)

Apple's Revenue CAGR: Apple's trailing twelve-month revenue grew from approximately $395.8 billion (FY2024) to $435.7 billion (FY2025) — a 1-year CAGR of 10.1%. While far less dramatic than NVIDIA's pace, Apple is growing off a base nearly four times larger. CAGR doesn't capture that nuance on its own, which is why analysts always pair it with context about scale.

U.S. GDP Growth: Nominal GDP expanded from $29,512 billion in Q2 2024 to $31,490 billion in Q3 2025, a span of 1.25 years. The CAGR: ($31,490 / $29,512) ^ (1 / 1.25) − 1 = approximately 5.3% annualized nominal growth. Adjusting for the CPI index rising from 323.3 to 326.6 over a similar period (roughly 1.5% annualized inflation), real GDP CAGR was closer to 3.8% — well above the long-run average of roughly 2–3%.

U.S. Nominal GDP — Quarterly (Billions USD)

CAGR vs. Average Return: Why the Distinction Matters

One of the most common mistakes in finance is confusing CAGR with an arithmetic average return. They answer different questions, and the gap between them can be enormous.

Imagine an investment that returns +50% in Year 1 and −33% in Year 2. The arithmetic average is (+50% − 33%) / 2 = +8.5%. Sounds decent. But your actual result? Start with $10,000, gain 50% to reach $15,000, then lose 33% to end at $10,050. The CAGR is ($10,050 / $10,000) ^ (1/2) − 1 = 0.25%. That's the real compound growth rate — almost nothing.

This gap, sometimes called *volatility drag*, widens as returns become more volatile. It's why two funds with identical average returns can deliver very different ending portfolio values. CAGR always reflects the actual compounded outcome. The arithmetic average reflects the typical single-year experience but ignores compounding's multiplicative nature.

For the S&P 500 (SPY), currently trading at $680.78 with a P/E ratio of 27.41, the long-run distinction is instructive. The index's arithmetic average annual return since 1926 is approximately 12%, but the CAGR over the same period is closer to 10%. That 2-percentage-point gap, compounded over decades, represents a massive difference in ending wealth. When someone quotes a historical stock market return, always ask: is that the average or the compound rate?

Real-World Applications: Where Analysts Use CAGR

Earnings growth analysis: When analysts say a company "grew earnings at a 15% CAGR over five years," they're providing a normalized view that smooths out quarterly beats, misses, and one-time charges. Apple's EPS trajectory from $1.53 in Q2 FY2024 to $2.85 in Q1 FY2026 reflects the kind of progression that CAGR captures cleanly, abstracting away seasonal patterns in iPhone launch quarters versus quieter periods.

Investment benchmarking: Comparing a stock's price CAGR against the S&P 500's CAGR over the same period reveals whether it outperformed or underperformed the market. NVIDIA's stock appreciation from its 52-week low of $86.62 to its current price of $190.23 — over less than a year — translates to an annualized CAGR that would dwarf most benchmarks, but only if sustained.

Revenue forecasting: Wall Street consensus estimates frequently express future expectations as revenue CAGRs. When an analyst projects 20% revenue CAGR for NVIDIA over the next three fiscal years, they're saying the compound effect of AI spending should drive revenue from today's ~$187 billion annualized run rate to roughly $324 billion by FY2029.

Portfolio performance: With the Fed funds rate at 3.64% (January 2026) and the 10-year Treasury yielding 4.08%, investors comparing bond returns against equity CAGRs can make more informed asset allocation decisions. A portfolio's 5-year CAGR captures reinvested dividends and compounding in a way that annual snapshots cannot.

Economic analysis: Policymakers and economists use GDP CAGR to compare growth rates across countries and time periods, normalizing for different measurement intervals and seasonal adjustments.

Limitations: When CAGR Can Mislead You

CAGR is powerful but not infallible. Understanding its blind spots is just as important as knowing how to calculate it.

Start and end date sensitivity: CAGR depends entirely on two data points — the beginning and ending values. If you measure a stock's CAGR from a market bottom to a peak, you'll get a much higher number than measuring from peak to trough. The same company, the same time period, can produce wildly different CAGRs depending on where you draw the boundaries. Always scrutinize the starting and ending dates in any CAGR claim.

No information about the path: A stock that rises steadily 10% per year and one that crashes 50% before recovering to deliver the same CAGR tell very different stories about risk. CAGR treats both identically. Investors who care about drawdowns, volatility, or capital preservation need additional metrics like maximum drawdown, standard deviation, or the Sharpe ratio alongside CAGR.

Assumes reinvestment: CAGR implicitly assumes all gains are reinvested. For dividend-paying stocks, this distinction matters: total return CAGR (including reinvested dividends) will always exceed price-only CAGR. When comparing fund performances, ensure you're comparing the same type.

Meaningless for short periods: Annualizing a single month's return into a CAGR can produce absurd numbers. A stock that gains 5% in one month would show a CAGR of roughly 80% if naively annualized. CAGR works best over periods of three years or more, where the smoothing effect genuinely adds analytical value.

Doesn't account for risk: Two investments might both deliver 12% CAGR over five years, but if one achieved it with bond-like stability and the other through extreme volatility, the risk-adjusted picture is very different. CAGR alone can't distinguish between the two.

Conclusion

CAGR is the compound microscope of financial analysis — it takes the messy, uneven reality of growth and resolves it into a single, comparable annual rate. From NVIDIA's AI-fueled 56% revenue expansion to Apple's steadier 10% scaling of a $400 billion revenue base to the U.S. economy's 5.3% nominal GDP growth, CAGR provides the common language for comparing trajectories that otherwise resist easy comparison.

But like any tool, it works best when you understand both its strengths and its limitations. A high CAGR says nothing about the volatility endured to achieve it, and a low one might mask recent acceleration. The savviest investors use CAGR as a starting point — a way to quickly screen and compare — and then layer on risk metrics, qualitative analysis, and forward-looking context.

With the S&P 500 trading at 27.4 times earnings, interest rates gradually declining from the Fed's 2025 hiking cycle peak, and corporate earnings growth bifurcating between AI beneficiaries and the broader market, CAGR remains essential for cutting through the noise. Whether you're evaluating your own portfolio's five-year track record or parsing an analyst's revenue forecast, the formula is the same — and now you know exactly how to use it.

Frequently Asked Questions

Sources & References

U.S. Gross Domestic Product — FRED

fred.stlouisfed.org

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate — FRED

fred.stlouisfed.org

Federal Funds Effective Rate — FRED

fred.stlouisfed.org

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers — FRED

fred.stlouisfed.org

NVIDIA Quarterly Report Q3 FY2026 — SEC Filing

www.sec.gov

Apple Quarterly Report Q1 FY2026 — SEC Filing

www.sec.gov

Deep Dive: What Is CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) — How to Calculate It and Why Every Investor Should Know It

Key Takeaways

The CAGR Formula: Simple Math With Powerful Results

Calculating CAGR With Real Market Data

NVIDIA Quarterly Revenue (Billions USD)

U.S. Nominal GDP — Quarterly (Billions USD)

CAGR vs. Average Return: Why the Distinction Matters

Real-World Applications: Where Analysts Use CAGR

Limitations: When CAGR Can Mislead You

Conclusion

Frequently Asked Questions

Sources & References

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