IBM’s $240 reset: why a 19% drawdown is forcing a harder look at cash conversion, leverage, and the AI promise
International Business Machines shares have slipped to roughly $240, nearly 19% below their 52‑week high of $296.16, as investors reassess the durability of its AI-led narrative and the quality of cash generation behind it. According to Yahoo Finance, the stock has fallen about 16% over the past month on elevated volumes, with a pronounced downdraft around the late‑July earnings window. The stakes are clear: IBM is asking investors to pay up for a higher-quality, software‑heavy portfolio, while the market is demanding near-term cash flow that comfortably funds a sizable dividend and services a large debt stack. The company’s latest quarterly filing shows healthy operating margins but softer cash conversion, a combination that has energized skeptics just as enthusiasm for “enterprise AI” has grown more discriminating. Bulls and bears now agree on one thing—execution over the next two quarters matters more than slideware. This article reconstructs the price action, reconciles it with the SEC‑filed fundamentals, and weighs the Street’s longer‑dated expectations against the nearer‑term evidence.