INTC Analysis: Intel's $220 Billion Comeback Bet — Why the Stock Has Doubled but the Turnaround Is Far from Over
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) has staged one of the most dramatic reversals in semiconductor history. Trading at $44.03 as of February 19, 2026 — down 3.1% on the day — the stock has soared 149% from its 52-week low of $17.67 but still sits 19% below its 52-week high of $54.60. With a market capitalization of approximately $220 billion and shares outstanding near 5 billion, Intel is no longer the hollowed-out relic that traded below book value in early 2025. But it is not yet the triumphant turnaround story some bulls have declared either. The past twelve months have been defined by contradictions. Full-year 2025 revenue reached approximately $52.9 billion across all four quarters, representing a modest recovery from 2024's depressed levels. Yet Intel posted a net income of just $26 million for the full fiscal year — essentially breakeven — after hemorrhaging $19.2 billion in 2024. The dividend has been suspended. Free cash flow remains deeply negative at -$4.9 billion for fiscal 2025. And just this week, Nvidia's sweeping CPU-and-GPU deal with Meta has been labeled an 'Intel killer' by at least one analyst, underscoring the existential competitive threat Intel faces in the data center. Still, there are reasons the stock has rallied. Intel's foundry strategy under CEO Lip-Bu Tan is beginning to attract external customers. The CHIPS Act subsidies continue to flow. Nvidia has reportedly taken a strategic investment position in Intel. And gross margins have stabilized in the 36-38% range after a catastrophic dip below 28% in Q2 2025. For investors, the question is whether $44 represents a reasonable entry for a multi-year turnaround — or whether the easy gains from the 2024-2025 washout are already behind us.