UNH Analysis: UnitedHealth's $263 Billion Healthcare Empire Has Lost Half Its Value — Why the Largest US Insurer's Margin Collapse Makes It Either a Value Trap or a Generational Buy
UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) has fallen 52% from its 52-week high of $606.36 to trade at $290, erasing roughly $280 billion in market capitalization in the process. The largest health insurer in the United States — which covers more than 50 million people through its UnitedHealthcare division and operates the massive Optum health services platform — closed out 2025 with a catastrophic fourth quarter that saw net income collapse to virtually zero. The stock now trades at 21.9x trailing earnings with a market cap of $263 billion, down from a premium north of 30x just twelve months ago. Full-year 2025 revenue came in at approximately $447.6 billion, making UNH one of the highest-revenue companies in the world, but net income fell to $12.1 billion from $15.2 billion in 2024 and $22.4 billion in 2023. The trajectory is unmistakable: medical costs are rising faster than premiums, and the managed care giant's operating margins have compressed from 8.3% in Q1 to just 0.3% in Q4. For investors, UNH presents a stark binary: either this is a cyclical margin trough in a business with durable competitive advantages and the stock is cheap, or rising healthcare utilization and regulatory headwinds signal a structural deterioration that the market has not yet fully priced in. The data below lays out both cases.