Earnings Analysis: Walmart Beats on Revenue and EPS but Cautious Outlook Rattles a Trillion-Dollar Stock
Walmart Inc. (WMT) delivered a strong holiday quarter on Thursday morning — revenue up 5.6% year-over-year to $190.7 billion, adjusted earnings of $0.74 per share topping the $0.73 consensus — and still watched its stock slide more than 2% at the open. The culprit: a fiscal-year earnings outlook of $2.75 to $2.85 per share that landed well below Wall Street's $2.96 expectation, casting a shadow over what was otherwise a showcase quarter for the world's largest brick-and-mortar retailer. The report, filed before dawn on February 19, marks a pivotal moment for Walmart on multiple fronts. It is the first earnings release under new CEO John Furner, who succeeded Doug McMillon on February 1 after more than three decades at the company. It also arrives just weeks after Walmart crossed the $1 trillion market capitalization threshold, and days after Amazon officially overtook it as the world's largest company by annual revenue — a symbolic passing of the torch that underscores the competitive pressure Walmart faces even as it posts record digital numbers. Investors now confront a familiar tension: Walmart's operating machine has never been sharper, but its premium valuation — trading at roughly 44 times trailing earnings — leaves almost no room for guidance that merely meets expectations, let alone misses them. The question is whether the cautious outlook reflects genuine economic headwinds or the kind of conservative sandbagging that has become a Walmart tradition under new management.