Novo Nordisk Crashes 47% From Peak as Obesity Drug Empire Faces Existential Threats From Eli Lilly, Compounders, and Its Own Guidance
Novo Nordisk, the Danish pharmaceutical giant that once seemed invincible atop the global obesity drug market, is now fighting on every front simultaneously — and investors are voting with their feet. Shares of Novo Nordisk (NVO) traded at $49.57 on Monday, down a staggering 47% from their 52-week high of $93.80, as the company grapples with intensifying competition from Eli Lilly, a legal war against compounding pharmacies, and a 2026 financial outlook that shocked Wall Street with the prospect of declining revenues. The scale of the reversal is remarkable. Just months ago, Novo was the most valuable company in Europe and the undisputed leader in GLP-1 weight loss treatments. Today, its market capitalization has been cut roughly in half to $220.4 billion, while rival Eli Lilly commands a valuation north of $932 billion — more than four times Novo's size. In the span of a single month, NVO shares plunged 21%, with a single-day drop of 14% followed by violent snapback rallies, as investors tried to parse whether the company's problems are temporary growing pains or signs of a structural decline. The catalyst for the latest rout was Novo's 2026 guidance, released alongside otherwise solid fourth-quarter results on February 4. While Q4 revenue came in at DKK 78.4 billion with a 34% net profit margin — numbers most companies would celebrate — the forward outlook told a different story entirely. On an adjusted basis, Novo expects sales and operating profit to decline 5% to 13% at constant exchange rates in 2026, a dramatic contrast to Eli Lilly's guidance calling for 25% sales growth in the same period.