Tariffs, TIPS and a Tale of Two Highs: Rebuilding a Gold-versus-Stocks Playbook for a Late-Cycle Market
A surprise U.S. tariff on standard bullion bar sizes has jolted the plumbing of the global gold market, pushing New York futures above London prices and confusing traditional hedging flows, according to a Yahoo Finance live blog that cited U.S. Customs and Border Protection and earlier reporting by the Financial Times. At the same time, both SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) sit within a whisker of their 52-week highs as of Friday, August 8, 2025, underscoring how risk assets and hedges are rallying in tandem. The macro backdrop is equally paradoxical: the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread has re-steepened to roughly +51 basis points, while 10-year TIPS yields—a proxy for real rates—remain near a restrictive ~1.9%, and corporate spreads are benign. For allocators calibrating equity beta and gold hedges, the signals don’t line up neatly. However, this raises questions about where we are in the cycle, what the tariff shock means for gold’s microstructure, and how to structure a robust, forward-looking allocation. This investigation synthesizes market data with policy developments to offer a framework that tilts but does not lurch, keeping room for multiple outcomes.