News: US and Iran Open High-Stakes Nuclear Talks in Geneva Amid Unprecedented Military Buildup and Global Protests

The United States and Iran have begun a pivotal second round of indirect nuclear negotiations in Geneva on Tuesday, February 17, with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner leading the American delegation and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi heading the Iranian team. The talks, mediated by Oman, are unfolding against the most intense backdrop of military posturing, economic pressure, and civil unrest that the two nations have faced since their last direct confrontation — the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025's Operation Midnight Hammer.

The stakes could hardly be higher. Washington has assembled what President Donald Trump has described as an "armada" in the Middle East, with the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group confirmed by satellite imagery off the coast of Oman, roughly 700 kilometers from Iranian shores, and the USS Gerald R. Ford — the world's largest warship — en route to the region. Tehran, meanwhile, has responded with its own show of force, launching live-fire naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz hours before talks began. Oil prices rose more than 1% on Tuesday as markets digested the geopolitical uncertainty, with Brent crude climbing ahead of what analysts describe as one of the most consequential diplomatic encounters in years.

The negotiations arrive in the wake of a devastating Iranian government crackdown on nationwide protests that killed at least 7,000 people according to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, and which prompted global demonstrations this past weekend — including a rally of over 250,000 people in Munich. The convergence of military threat, humanitarian crisis, and fragile diplomacy makes this week's Geneva talks a potential turning point in one of the world's most dangerous geopolitical disputes.

Diplomatic Signals: Both Sides Talk Tough but Leave Room for Compromise

The public rhetoric heading into the Geneva talks reflects a careful balancing act by both Washington and Tehran — tough enough to satisfy domestic audiences, but calibrated to leave space for negotiation.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Monday, Trump framed himself as indirectly involved in the talks and expressed cautious optimism. "I don't think they want the consequences of not making a deal," Trump said, referencing last summer's air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. "We could have had a deal instead of sending the B-2s in to knock out their nuclear potential. I hope they're going to be more reasonable." Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking from Hungary, struck a more measured tone: "I think that there's an opportunity here to diplomatically reach an agreement, but I don't want to overstate it either. It's going to be hard."

Iran has been sending mixed but generally conciliatory signals. Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi told the BBC that the ball was "in America's court to prove that they want to do a deal," adding, "If they are sincere, I'm sure we will be on the road to an agreement." Tehran has signaled willingness to dilute its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% purity — a notable concession — but has flatly rejected zero enrichment, a key U.S. demand. "The issue of zero enrichment is not an issue anymore and as far as Iran is concerned, it is not on the table anymore," Takht-Ravanchi stated. Foreign Minister Araghchi, posting on X upon his arrival in Geneva, wrote: "I am in Geneva with real ideas to achieve a fair and equitable deal. What is not on the table: submission before threats."

The Military Shadow Over Geneva: Carriers, Destroyers, and War Drills

Perhaps the most striking feature of these negotiations is the scale of military activity surrounding them. BBC Verify has tracked at least 12 U.S. warships in the Middle East through satellite imagery, including the Abraham Lincoln nuclear-powered carrier with its 90 aircraft and 5,680 crew, three Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers, two additional destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean, and combat ships stationed at Bahrain naval base. An increase in F-15 and EA-18 fighter jets at Muwaffaq Salti military base in Jordan has also been documented, alongside a surge in cargo, refueling, and communications aircraft moving from the U.S. and Europe toward the region.

Military intelligence expert Justin Crump told BBC Verify that the current buildup shows "more depth and sustainability" than U.S. deployments for either the Venezuela operation or Operation Midnight Hammer. The existing configuration, combined with eight airbases in the region, could sustain approximately 800 sorties per day — enough to "render any Iranian responses ineffective," Crump assessed. "What we are seeing isn't just strike preparation, but rather a broader deterrent deployment capable of being scaled up or down."

Tehran has not remained passive. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched maritime drills in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, led by IRGC Commander-in-Chief Maj. Gen. Mohammad Pakpour. The exercises, described by state media as an assessment of "readiness of operational units" for responding to security threats, included live missile launches from naval vessels. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivered a pointed warning on Tuesday: "More dangerous than an aircraft carrier is the weapon that can send it to the bottom of the sea." He added that the U.S. military "may sometimes receive such a blow that it cannot get back up," while accusing Washington of attempting to predetermine the outcome of the talks.

What Each Side Wants — and Where the Gaps Remain

The fundamental divergence between the two sides centers on scope: Tehran insists the talks focus narrowly on its nuclear program and sanctions relief, while Washington wants a broader agreement encompassing ballistic missiles and Iran's support for regional proxy groups.

Iran possesses more than 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity — far beyond what is needed for civilian purposes and close to weapons-grade levels. When asked whether Iran would ship this stockpile abroad, as it did under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Takht-Ravanchi said it was "too early to say." Iran's foreign ministry has also floated economic sweeteners, with deputy director for economic diplomacy Hamid Ghanbari suggesting that "common interests in the oil and gas fields, joint fields, mining investments, and even aircraft purchases" could be included in any deal — an implicit pitch that sanctions relief would also benefit American commercial interests.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has weighed in heavily, insisting publicly that any deal must include the dismantling — not merely freezing — of Iran's nuclear enrichment infrastructure. "There shall be no enrichment capability — not stopping the enrichment process, but dismantling the equipment and the infrastructure that allows you to enrich in the first place," Netanyahu said at the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations. CBS News reported that Trump told Netanyahu during a December meeting at Mar-a-Lago that the president would support Israeli strikes on Iran's ballistic missile program if negotiations fail, and that internal discussions within the U.S. military and intelligence community have begun contemplating how to assist such strikes, including aerial refueling for Israeli aircraft.

Global Protests and Iran's Internal Crisis Add Urgency

The Geneva talks are not occurring in a vacuum. Iran's clerical regime is facing its most severe internal crisis in decades, following nationwide protests that erupted over deteriorating economic conditions and spiraled into calls for regime change. Security forces violently suppressed the demonstrations, with at least 7,000 people killed according to HRANA data. Reports indicate the regime issued nationwide shoot-to-kill orders as the death toll surged.

The scale of international solidarity with Iranian protesters has been remarkable. A Global Day of Action on Saturday drew massive crowds worldwide: more than 250,000 gathered in Munich — one of the largest rallies in the city's recent history, according to Munich police — with additional demonstrations of 350,000 in Toronto, as well as major marches in London, Los Angeles, Tokyo, Melbourne, and Athens. Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi addressed the Munich crowd, saying he hoped any potential U.S. military action would "expedite the process" of the regime's downfall. Senator Lindsey Graham, present in Munich for the Security Conference, told protesters to "keep protesting" and declared, "There's no negotiating with these people in my view."

The humanitarian dimension has complicated the diplomatic picture. Trump himself endorsed the protesters, telling them "help is on its way," while also publicly suggesting that regime change would be "the best thing" for Iran. Critics argue that such rhetoric undermines the very negotiations the administration is pursuing, while supporters contend that maximum pressure — both military and popular — is what forces Tehran to the table.

Market Reactions and the Oil Factor

Financial markets are watching Geneva closely, cognizant that the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint where Iran conducted its drills — carries roughly 20% of global oil and gas shipments. Oil prices climbed on Tuesday, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude up 1.29% and Brent crude rising 1.33%, as traders priced in the risk of disruption.

Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields slipped to 4.044%, their lowest since early December, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid the uncertainty. Gold pulled back slightly to $4,949.50 per ounce after a dollar-strengthening session on Monday, though it remains near historic highs. Asian markets traded cautiously in holiday-thinned conditions, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 0.5% and major Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese exchanges closed for Lunar New Year.

ANZ analysts captured the prevailing market sentiment: "The market remains unsettled by geopolitical uncertainties, with investors cautious due to the pending US-Iran and Ukraine negotiations this week. If tension in the Middle East eases or meaningful progress is made on the Ukraine war, the risk premium currently built into oil prices could swiftly unwind." The dual Geneva talks — with Russia-Ukraine negotiations happening simultaneously — mean that this week could deliver either significant de-escalation across two of the world's most dangerous flashpoints, or a sharp escalation in risk premiums that reverberates through every asset class.

Conclusion

The Geneva talks represent a narrow diplomatic window whose outcome will reverberate far beyond Switzerland. On one side sits an American administration that has demonstrated willingness to use military force against Iran — having already bombed nuclear sites last summer — and has assembled the most substantial U.S. naval presence in the Middle East since the Iraq War. On the other sits an Iranian regime weakened by mass protests, crippled by sanctions, and yet still holding a stockpile of highly enriched uranium that gives it significant leverage. Oman, the quiet mediator, must bridge a gulf between a maximalist American position that seeks zero enrichment and missile constraints, and an Iranian minimum demand for sanctions relief and recognition of its right to enrich.

The most difficult questions may be the ones neither side has publicly addressed. If Iran agrees to dilute its enriched uranium but refuses to dismantle its centrifuge infrastructure, can Washington call that a victory? If the U.S. lifts sanctions but Iran's economy remains tethered to China — which buys over 80% of its oil exports — does that create new dependencies that undermine the deal's strategic purpose? And if negotiations collapse, how does the administration reconcile its stated preference for diplomacy with the military apparatus it has already deployed — an apparatus that military experts say is designed not merely for deterrence but for "sustained engagement"?

Perhaps the deepest tension lies in the simultaneous pursuit of regime change rhetoric and nuclear diplomacy. The administration has endorsed Iranian protesters, called regime change the "best thing" for Iran, and assembled an armada within striking distance — all while dispatching its envoys to negotiate with the very government it has encouraged citizens to overthrow. Whether this represents strategic genius or strategic incoherence may depend entirely on what emerges from Geneva in the days ahead. For millions of Iranians living under a violent crackdown, for oil markets bracing for disruption, and for a Middle East already scarred by decades of conflict, the answer cannot come soon enough.