Rubio Extends Olive Branch at Munich Security Conference — But Europe's 'Sleeping Giant' Is Already Waking Up

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a carefully calibrated address to the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, striking a markedly different tone from the combative speech Vice President JD Vance delivered at the same forum one year ago. Declaring that America would 'always be a child of Europe,' Rubio sought to reassure anxious allies that the trans-Atlantic alliance remains a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy — even as President Donald Trump continues to demand fundamental reforms to the relationship and the international institutions that underpin it.

The 62nd Munich Security Conference, which runs through Sunday, has drawn some 50 world leaders to the Bavarian capital at a moment of extraordinary geopolitical flux. Russia's war in Ukraine grinds into its fourth year with a new round of peace talks scheduled for next week in Geneva. Iran's nuclear ambitions loom large, with U.S. military planners preparing for the possibility of sustained, weeks-long operations against Tehran. And the question of whether Europe can — or will — build the independent defense capabilities to match its economic heft has moved from abstract debate to urgent policy priority.

But beneath Rubio's warmer rhetoric, the substance of Washington's message remained largely unchanged: Europe must spend more, contribute more, and accept that the post-Cold War order it relied upon is gone. What has changed is the European response. From German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's revelation of confidential talks on a joint European nuclear deterrent, to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's declaration that Europe is a 'sleeping giant' ready to awaken, the continent's leaders are no longer simply asking America for reassurance — they are beginning to build an alternative.

A Softer Tone, but the Same Policy Playbook

Rubio's speech was widely regarded as a diplomatic reset following a year of bruising rhetoric from the Trump administration. Where Vance had stunned Munich in 2025 with a frontal assault on European values — accusing the continent of policing free speech and enabling mass migration — Rubio opted for shared heritage and common purpose. 'We have fought against each other, then reconciled, then fought and reconciled again,' Rubio told the audience. 'And we have bled and died side-by-side on battlefields from Kapyong to Kandahar.'

The speech drew a standing ovation, a stark contrast to the chilly reception Vance received. U.S. officials traveling with Rubio told CBS News that the message was substantively similar to Vance's but was 'intended to have a softer landing' on an audience that had 'recoiled at much of Trump's rhetoric over the past year.' Rubio also acknowledged transatlantic strain, saying Americans 'may sometimes come off as a little direct and urgent in our counsel.'

Yet the policy demands remained firm. Rubio denounced what he called 'a climate cult,' criticized decades of mass migration and deindustrialization, and argued that the post-Cold War 'euphoria' had led to a 'dangerous delusion' that liberal democracy and borderless commerce would inevitably triumph. He called for a 'reinvigorated alliance' that 'does not maintain the polite pretense that our way of life is just one among many.' He also took aim at the United Nations, saying that on the most pressing global crises — including Gaza and Ukraine — 'it has no answers and has played virtually no role.'

Europe's Defiant Awakening on Defense

If Rubio's speech was designed to reassure, Europe's leaders used Munich to signal that reassurance alone is no longer enough. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz opened the conference on Friday by calling for the U.S. and Europe to 'repair and revive trans-Atlantic trust together,' while revealing that 'confidential talks' were underway with French President Emmanuel Macron on creating a joint European nuclear deterrent — a politically explosive proposal that underscores how dramatically European security thinking has shifted.

France and the United Kingdom are currently the only two nuclear powers in Europe, and many European nations have relied for decades on the U.S. nuclear umbrella provided through NATO. The mere fact that Germany — which has long maintained a posture of nuclear restraint — is now discussing such a capability with France signals a fundamental rethinking of the continent's defense architecture.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer reinforced the message, telling the conference that 'Europe is a sleeping giant' whose economies 'dwarf Russia's, 10 times over' yet whose fragmented defense procurement has produced 'gaps in some areas and massive duplication in others.' Starmer announced the deployment of the UK's Carrier Strike Group, led by the HMS Prince of Wales, across the North Atlantic and Arctic — a deployment designed to demonstrate NATO readiness. He stressed that the U.K. would not repeat the isolationism of the Brexit era. 'There is no British security without Europe, and no European security without Britain,' he declared.

The View from Moscow, Beijing, and Kyiv

The conference also featured pointed interventions from other global powers. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, speaking directly after Rubio, offered a thinly veiled critique of Washington's approach. 'The main reason for the inadequacy of the current international system is not the United Nations itself, but the fact that some countries magnify differences, pursue national priorities, and even revive the Cold War mentality,' Wang argued. While expressing satisfaction that Trump 'respects President Xi Jinping and China,' Wang warned that 'some forces and some people are still trying their best to suppress and contain China.'

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy struck a more emotional note, thanking Americans for their support while criticizing the previous Biden administration for being slow to ramp up military aid. He also singled out Iran for supplying the Shahed drones Russia uses to devastate Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. 'Ukraine does not share a border with Iran and we have never had a conflict of interests with the Iranian regime,' Zelenskyy said. 'But the Iranian Shahed drones they sold to Russia are killing, especially, our people.'

The Iran question loomed particularly large over the conference. Reuters reported on Saturday that the U.S. military is preparing for the possibility of sustained, weeks-long operations against Iran if diplomacy fails, with the Pentagon dispatching a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East. Trump told troops at Fort Bragg on Friday that 'it has been difficult to make a deal' with Iran, adding that 'sometimes you have to have fear.' U.S. officials said any sustained campaign could target Iranian state and security facilities beyond just nuclear infrastructure — a significant escalation from last year's one-off 'Midnight Hammer' strikes.

Domestic Politics Meet the Global Stage

Munich also served as an arena for American domestic political dynamics to play out on the world stage. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, making her debut at the conference, delivered a pointed warning that Western democracies must deliver 'material gains for the working class' or fall prey to authoritarianism. She called Trump's Greenland threats 'not a joke' and warned against military strikes on Iran as a 'dramatic escalation that no one in the world wants to see.'

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and California Governor Gavin Newsom were also among the Democratic delegation, with Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez both using the platform to criticize Trump's climate policies — appearances Fox News characterized as 'doubling down on stupid' and raising their 2028 presidential profiles. The presence of prominent Democrats at Munich underscored an unusual dynamic: American foreign policy is being debated not just between Washington and its allies, but between competing American delegations at the same international forum.

Wolfgang Ischinger, the Munich Security Conference's chairman and a former German ambassador to the United States, offered perhaps the most candid assessment of where things stand. He told CNBC that Europe is 'totally on the sidelines' in global negotiations, calling it Europe's 'own fault' for failing to 'speak with one voice' on China, the Middle East, or Iran's nuclear program. 'Why the hell do we not have a place at the table? This is our continent. It's our future,' he said. Ischinger rejected a 'blame game regarding the United States' but insisted Europe must take responsibility for its own strategic failures.

A New Round of Peace Talks — and New Risks

Against this backdrop, Russia and Ukraine confirmed that a new round of peace talks involving the United States will take place in Geneva on February 17-18, aimed at finding a path to end the four-year war. The announcement came after a previous round in Abu Dhabi yielded no apparent breakthrough, though the two sides did carry out a rare prisoner-of-war exchange shortly afterward.

European leaders have scrambled to ensure they are not excluded from the process. Ischinger's frustration — 'when I look at the war in Ukraine, Europe has no place' — reflects a broader anxiety that Washington and Moscow could reach an accord over European heads. Merz's call for a European nuclear discussion and Starmer's emphasis on defense autonomy are, in part, responses to that fear: if Europe cannot guarantee its own security, it will have no leverage in shaping the peace.

The Munich conference report, published earlier this week, warned that 'the world has entered a period of wrecking-ball politics' in which 'sweeping destruction is the order of the day.' European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen acknowledged the threat, saying Europe faces 'the very distinct threat of outside forces trying to weaken our union from within.' But she argued that an independent Europe would actually strengthen the trans-Atlantic alliance. 'An independent Europe is a strong Europe and a strong Europe makes for a stronger transatlantic alliance,' she said, directly echoing Rubio's call for a more capable European partner.

Conclusion

The 2026 Munich Security Conference may come to be seen as the moment Europe stopped asking for American reassurance and started building alternatives. Rubio's speech was welcomed — Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur called it 'a good speech, needed here today' — but the European response was notably different from years past. Instead of relief, there was determination. Instead of deference, there was strategic planning. The talk of a European nuclear deterrent, the British carrier deployment, the calls for defense procurement reform — these are not the reactions of a continent content to shelter under an American umbrella.

The deeper question Munich raised, however, is whether this awakening will come fast enough. Russia's war in Ukraine continues. Iran's nuclear program advances. China's influence expands. And the international institutions that once managed such crises — the U.N., multilateral trade frameworks, arms-control agreements — are, as Rubio himself acknowledged, failing to deliver. Whether the trans-Atlantic alliance can be reformed rather than fractured, and whether Europe can translate its economic weight into strategic power before the next crisis arrives, remain open and urgent questions.

Perhaps most striking was the gap between tone and trajectory. Rubio's warm words about shared heritage coexist with a Trump administration preparing for potential sustained military operations against Iran without European input. Europe's declarations of strategic autonomy coexist with a continent that still cannot field a unified foreign policy on the issues that matter most. Munich 2026 offered a reassuring surface — beneath it, the tectonic plates of the Western alliance continue to shift in directions that no single speech, however well-received, can reverse.